NBA games

BOS @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
126–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
BOS402532245126
GS3032243511132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home GS
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 40 30 7 3
Jaylen Brown S 41 28 8 7
Jayson Tatum S 41 15 8 7
Jrue Holiday S 36 13 7 1
Al Horford S 38 13 12 6
Payton Pritchard 19 11 0 2
Neemias Queta 21 10 10 1
Oshae Brissett 5 6 0 0
Sam Hauser 21 0 3 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 38 33 3 6
Klay Thompson S 40 24 4 4
Jonathan Kuminga S 34 17 7 2
Dario Saric 15 11 6 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 29 10 13 1
Moses Moody 17 10 0 0
Chris Paul 35 9 7 12
Andrew Wiggins 22 6 7 1
Brandin Podziemski S 16 5 5 1
Cory Joseph 6 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Klay Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
3 Derrick White BOS
12%
4 Stephen Curry GS
11%
5 Klay Thompson GS
10%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
7 Kevon Looney GS
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
48%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.1 7.8 4.5
2 Stephen Curry GS 24.0 4.9 5.5
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.6 4.9 4.0
4 Derrick White BOS 19.5 4.6 5.9
5 Klay Thompson GS 18.6 4.7 2.7
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 13.7 5.1 1.6
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.0 5.5 4.1
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.0 4.0 1.4
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.4 5.6 3.2
10 Dario Saric GS 10.8 4.5 2.3
11 Al Horford BOS 10.4 7.6 3.1
12 Draymond Green GS 9.8 5.5 4.8
13 Chris Paul GS 9.3 3.1 6.7
14 Moses Moody GS 9.3 3.5 1.2
15 Sam Hauser BOS 8.9 3.7 1.5
16 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.8 3.0 2.3
17 Kevon Looney GS 5.7 5.4 2.1
18 Neemias Queta BOS 5.3 4.3 0.6
19 Gary Payton II GS 4.2 2.5 0.7
20 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.7 1.9 0.6
21 Dalano Banton BOS 3.6 2.4 0.7
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.4 2.1 0.7
23 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.3 2.2 0.7
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.5 0.8 0.4
25 Cory Joseph GS 2.3 0.6 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.