NBA games

SA @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
119–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA26332634119
MIL44283525132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIL
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson S 35 28 12 1
Zach Collins S 29 22 8 2
Devin Vassell S 33 17 3 2
Tre Jones 24 14 1 5
Malaki Branham S 27 12 2 3
Cedi Osman 19 10 2 1
Jeremy Sochan S 33 9 11 8
Sandro Mamukelashvili 15 3 8 3
Julian Champagnie 2 2 0 0
Dominick Barlow 11 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 35 40 3 4
Bobby Portis 26 23 10 2
Khris Middleton S 28 17 3 4
Brook Lopez S 32 14 5 1
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 34 11 14 16
Andre Jackson Jr. 15 7 3 2
Malik Beasley S 28 7 4 2
Cameron Payne 13 7 0 0
Robin Lopez 2 3 1 0
Pat Connaughton 18 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Collins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Zach Collins makes 14-foot two point shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
16%
2 Keldon Johnson SA
13%
3 Khris Middleton MIL
12%
4 Devin Vassell SA
11%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
8 Malaki Branham SA
8%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
89%
Jumper
5%
Layup
4%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.7 11.9 7.2
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.2 4.6 8.5
3 Keldon Johnson SA 19.7 6.3 4.4
4 Devin Vassell SA 18.8 3.8 3.3
5 Khris Middleton MIL 15.7 5.9 5.1
6 Bobby Portis MIL 13.3 6.7 1.5
7 Brook Lopez MIL 13.2 4.8 2.3
8 Malik Beasley MIL 12.0 5.0 1.8
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.0 4.7 3.7
10 Malaki Branham SA 10.8 2.8 2.8
11 Zach Collins SA 10.4 5.1 3.4
12 Cedi Osman SA 8.8 2.9 2.5
13 Tre Jones SA 7.5 2.5 4.4
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.3 3.8 2.0
15 Cameron Payne MIL 6.6 1.4 2.8
16 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.5 2.8 1.1
17 Doug McDermott SA 5.4 1.6 1.3
18 Julian Champagnie SA 5.3 1.9 0.9
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.7 2.2 1.1
20 Devonte' Graham SA 4.2 1.4 1.8
21 AJ Green MIL 3.6 1.2 0.8
22 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.4 1.6 1.0
23 Robin Lopez MIL 2.4 1.6 0.9
24 Dominick Barlow SA 2.1 0.9 0.3
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.1 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.