NBA games

MEM @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
115–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM25163638115
NO21392726113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home NO
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 35 34 6 8
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 24 6 0
Desmond Bane S 35 21 1 4
Vince Williams Jr. S 35 9 7 3
Bismack Biyombo S 22 8 2 0
Santi Aldama 16 8 3 0
Xavier Tillman 20 7 6 1
Ziaire Williams 18 4 2 0
John Konchar 22 0 8 0
David Roddy 9 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 37 34 4 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 33 22 14 1
CJ McCollum S 41 18 3 6
Zion Williamson S 25 13 3 4
Trey Murphy III 21 7 3 0
Herbert Jones S 30 7 1 2
Cody Zeller 13 4 6 1
Dyson Daniels 13 3 1 2
Naji Marshall 17 3 2 1
Jose Alvarado 8 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 19-foot two point shot (Herbert Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jonas Valanciunas NO
12%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
4 Zion Williamson NO
10%
5 Brandon Ingram NO
9%
6 CJ McCollum NO
8%
7 Derrick Rose MEM
7%
8 Herbert Jones NO
7%
9 Xavier Tillman MEM
6%
10 Bismack Biyombo MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
20%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 24.0 4.9 6.4
2 Zion Williamson NO 23.8 6.8 5.3
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.0 5.3 2.2
4 Brandon Ingram NO 23.0 4.6 6.2
5 CJ McCollum NO 21.8 3.9 5.4
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 18.9 11.5 2.6
7 Trey Murphy III NO 15.8 4.1 2.1
8 Herbert Jones NO 12.6 4.5 2.9
9 David Roddy MEM 10.2 4.7 1.8
10 Santi Aldama MEM 10.2 5.9 1.9
11 Derrick Rose MEM 9.2 2.4 3.8
12 Naji Marshall NO 8.5 3.8 2.5
13 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.0 5.6 1.6
14 Jose Alvarado NO 7.8 2.9 2.2
15 Jordan Hawkins NO 7.8 2.3 1.1
16 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.2 2.7 1.5
17 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.4 5.7 1.9
18 Xavier Tillman MEM 5.7 3.5 1.4
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.6 2.8 1.2
20 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.0 1.2 2.9
21 Dyson Daniels NO 4.8 2.9 1.4
22 John Konchar MEM 4.6 3.6 1.0
23 Cody Zeller NO 3.3 2.4 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.