NBA games

NY @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
114–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY35223324114
LAL27312229109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home LAL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 29 4 3
Julius Randle S 43 27 14 3
Immanuel Quickley 29 20 3 2
RJ Barrett S 30 12 5 4
Isaiah Hartenstein 39 9 17 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 19 8 1 3
Josh Hart 22 6 5 2
Quentin Grimes 11 3 0 2
Taj Gibson 6 0 3 0
Jericho Sims S 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 35 32 14 2
LeBron James S 39 25 11 11
Austin Reaves 33 20 3 7
Taurean Prince S 39 9 2 3
D'Angelo Russell S 28 9 3 4
Rui Hachimura 17 8 2 0
Cam Reddish S 27 4 2 1
Jaxson Hayes 8 2 2 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 14 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
D'Angelo Russell · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
4 LeBron James LAL
9%
5 RJ Barrett NY
9%
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
7 Julius Randle NY
8%
8 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
9 Jericho Sims NY
6%
10 Max Christie LAL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
71%
Jumper
10%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle NY 27.7 8.9 5.8
2 Anthony Davis LAL 27.5 12.3 3.4
3 Jalen Brunson NY 27.2 4.4 7.4
4 LeBron James LAL 25.8 6.8 7.8
5 Austin Reaves LAL 19.6 4.1 4.6
6 RJ Barrett NY 18.2 4.2 2.6
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 14.8 3.5 6.5
8 Immanuel Quickley NY 12.1 2.8 2.0
9 Taurean Prince LAL 10.7 3.3 2.0
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.4 3.8 1.7
11 Josh Hart NY 9.9 4.2 2.6
12 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.6 2.7 1.5
13 Christian Wood LAL 8.5 5.5 1.4
14 Evan Fournier NY 8.3 2.3 1.0
15 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 7.1 7.8 1.7
16 Cam Reddish LAL 6.6 2.9 1.5
17 Quentin Grimes NY 6.4 1.9 1.2
18 Max Christie LAL 5.2 2.2 1.3
19 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.6 2.8 0.7
20 Miles McBride NY 3.3 1.1 0.8
21 Jericho Sims NY 3.2 2.1 0.5
22 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.0 4.2 0.9
23 Taj Gibson NY 2.8 1.4 0.6
24 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.5 1.1 0.6
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.4 1.3 0.6
26 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.5 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.