NBA games

WSH @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
131–143
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH31253540131
SAC27394631143

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home SAC
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 29 28 0 2
Kyle Kuzma S 29 27 8 1
Tyus Jones S 28 16 1 9
Mike Muscala 23 11 6 2
Bilal Coulibaly 33 11 4 2
Deni Avdija S 23 9 5 3
Jared Butler 5 8 1 0
Daniel Gafford S 25 8 5 1
Corey Kispert 21 7 3 3
Anthony Gill 20 4 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 33 30 5 6
Domantas Sabonis S 32 28 13 12
Keegan Murray S 32 25 5 4
Harrison Barnes S 34 19 0 0
Kevin Huerter S 23 11 4 2
Malik Monk 22 10 1 6
Sasha Vezenkov 12 8 7 1
Keon Ellis 15 3 1 2
Kessler Edwards 4 3 1 1
Colby Jones 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes 6-foot two point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
12%
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
5 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Deni Avdija WSH
7%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
7%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
25%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 31.7 4.6 8.0
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.2 6.2 4.9
3 Malik Monk SAC 20.3 3.2 5.9
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 19.9 12.3 7.4
5 Jordan Poole WSH 18.6 3.3 4.5
6 Keegan Murray SAC 16.1 4.4 2.1
7 Tyus Jones WSH 12.9 3.8 5.7
8 Daniel Gafford WSH 12.8 8.2 2.4
9 Deni Avdija WSH 12.8 5.6 4.6
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.3 4.6 1.8
11 Corey Kispert WSH 11.1 2.5 1.6
12 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.1 3.9 1.8
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 10.2 3.9 2.8
14 Trey Lyles SAC 6.8 5.2 1.7
15 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 6.1 3.3 1.1
16 Keon Ellis SAC 5.5 1.9 1.8
17 Chris Duarte SAC 4.8 2.3 1.1
18 Jared Butler WSH 4.2 1.2 1.9
19 Mike Muscala WSH 4.1 2.2 0.9
20 Colby Jones SAC 3.9 1.5 0.6
21 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.6 1.3 1.8
22 JaVale McGee SAC 3.6 3.0 0.7
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.5 1.5 0.8
24 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.2 1.1 0.5
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.6 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.