NBA games

BKN @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
108–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN28312326108
UTAH28263437125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home UTAH
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 37 32 4 3
Spencer Dinwiddie S 36 17 8 11
Mikal Bridges S 35 13 1 5
Nic Claxton S 26 11 7 0
Cameron Johnson S 27 7 5 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 21 6 2 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 16 6 5 0
Royce O'Neale 23 6 1 1
Trendon Watford 7 5 3 1
Jalen Wilson 8 5 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Talen Horton-Tucker S 31 27 3 6
Collin Sexton S 35 27 3 6
Lauri Markkanen S 29 20 10 4
Walker Kessler S 32 14 14 0
Ochai Agbaji 23 13 3 2
John Collins 20 11 3 0
Luka Samanic 2 5 1 0
Kris Dunn 16 4 3 5
Simone Fontecchio S 25 2 4 3
Kelly Olynyk 20 2 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
3 John Collins UTAH
9%
4 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
9%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
7 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
8 Mikal Bridges BKN
8%
9 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
49%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Mikal Bridges BKN 24.1 4.9 4.3
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.9 3.8 3.1
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 21.7 7.6 1.7
4 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 19.5 4.5 7.7
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.0 3.5 4.0
6 Keyonte George UTAH 15.7 3.4 4.8
7 John Collins UTAH 14.1 7.9 1.3
8 Cameron Johnson BKN 13.3 4.7 2.8
9 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 12.6 3.9 2.4
10 Nic Claxton BKN 12.3 10.4 1.4
11 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 11.8 2.9 3.6
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.1 8.3 1.6
13 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.8 5.1 1.2
14 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.7 4.2 3.3
15 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 9.5 2.8 1.5
16 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.3 5.6 4.9
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.8 7.1 1.8
18 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.5 2.7 3.1
19 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.4 2.5 3.4
20 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 6.3 3.0 1.0
21 Harry Giles III BKN 6.0 3.1 0.4
22 Trendon Watford BKN 5.8 3.0 1.7
23 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.3 1.3 0.7
24 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.9 1.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.