NBA games

DAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
104–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL20392124104
DEN28403032130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home DEN
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 38 11 8
Dante Exum S 23 11 1 2
Jaden Hardy 19 9 1 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 22 8 2 1
Dwight Powell S 23 8 8 0
Grant Williams S 22 7 3 0
A.J. Lawson 15 6 2 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 6 1 1
Greg Brown III 9 5 2 0
Richaun Holmes 7 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 25 22 4 2
Aaron Gordon S 24 21 5 5
Reggie Jackson 19 20 1 4
Zeke Nnaji 20 14 4 2
Julian Strawther 21 12 3 2
Peyton Watson 24 10 7 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 26 9 3 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 23 8 4 1
Nikola Jokic S 28 8 9 7
Christian Braun 20 6 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Michael Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
16%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
4 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
8 Dante Exum DAL
7%
9 Justin Holiday DEN
7%
10 Grant Williams DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
21%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 34.5 7.6 9.4
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.4 11.8 10.0
3 Jamal Murray DEN 19.2 4.2 6.0
4 Reggie Jackson DEN 17.1 2.7 5.7
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.6 8.2 2.0
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 14.9 3.3 1.6
7 Dante Exum DAL 13.6 3.9 3.8
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 12.9 7.5 3.0
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.5 2.4 2.4
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.4 4.0 1.3
11 Grant Williams DAL 8.8 3.7 1.8
12 Christian Braun DEN 8.2 3.2 1.6
13 Peyton Watson DEN 7.8 3.5 1.5
14 Seth Curry DAL 7.0 2.2 1.2
15 Julian Strawther DEN 6.7 2.3 1.3
16 Justin Holiday DEN 6.6 2.2 1.7
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.7 2.0 1.4
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.4 5.5 1.1
19 Markieff Morris DAL 3.9 1.7 1.0
20 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.8 1.5 0.7
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.4 1.9 0.8
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.4 2.3 0.5
23 Dwight Powell DAL 3.3 2.2 1.1
24 Greg Brown III DAL 2.5 2.1 0.5
25 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.5 3.1 0.4
26 Dexter Dennis DAL 2.5 0.8 0.3
27 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.0 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.