NBA games

MEM @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
97–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM2627133197
OKC34342622116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home OKC
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ziaire Williams 22 19 7 5
Desmond Bane S 28 17 1 5
Jacob Gilyard S 34 12 1 7
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 25 11 5 1
Santi Aldama 20 9 9 1
GG Jackson 12 8 0 0
David Roddy 22 8 4 1
John Konchar 17 5 2 2
Vince Williams Jr. S 23 5 5 1
Jake LaRavia 12 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 30 9 5
Chet Holmgren S 25 17 6 2
Josh Giddey S 24 16 12 4
Luguentz Dort S 21 11 2 2
Jalen Williams S 28 10 4 5
Cason Wallace 17 7 2 2
Kenrich Williams 15 6 4 3
Olivier Sarr 7 6 3 0
Isaiah Joe 19 5 4 3
Ousmane Dieng 19 4 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jacob Gilyard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Jacob Gilyard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane MEM
16%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
15%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
5 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
7 Bismack Biyombo MEM
9%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
9 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
8%
10 David Roddy MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
42%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.8 4.5 7.4
2 Desmond Bane MEM 24.7 5.2 6.3
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.2 5.6 2.5
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.4 4.4 3.9
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.6 8.6 2.3
6 Santi Aldama MEM 11.9 5.9 1.9
7 Josh Giddey OKC 11.6 6.2 4.1
8 David Roddy MEM 10.5 4.7 1.7
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.1 3.6 1.5
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.3 2.7 1.3
11 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.9 5.6 1.6
12 Cason Wallace OKC 7.2 2.7 1.2
13 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.9 5.9 1.9
14 Ziaire Williams MEM 6.0 2.6 1.4
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.8 2.4 0.9
16 Jake LaRavia MEM 5.6 2.2 1.1
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.6 2.8 1.3
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.4 2.9 1.1
19 Xavier Tillman MEM 5.0 2.7 1.2
20 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.6 1.2 2.2
21 Davis Bertans OKC 4.3 1.3 0.8
22 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.0 1.8 0.9
23 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.0 0.8 2.7
24 John Konchar MEM 3.9 3.4 0.9
25 Tre Mann OKC 3.2 1.4 1.0
26 GG Jackson MEM 3.1 0.8 0.4
27 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.8 2.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.