NBA games

CHA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
99–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2725291899
TOR19293135114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home TOR
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 32 22 3 7
P.J. Washington S 39 15 7 5
Bryce McGowens S 32 14 5 1
Brandon Miller S 37 14 3 0
Nick Richards S 32 10 10 3
Ish Smith 23 8 0 1
Nick Smith Jr. 20 7 1 0
JT Thor 14 5 3 0
Leaky Black 11 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 27 8 8
Gary Trent Jr. 35 22 10 3
Scottie Barnes S 39 22 17 7
Dennis Schroder S 34 13 0 5
Precious Achiuwa 18 12 7 1
Chris Boucher 15 7 3 0
OG Anunoby S 32 5 2 2
Jakob Poeltl S 15 4 1 2
Malachi Flynn 16 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Bryce McGowens assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 Terry Rozier CHA
13%
3 Pascal Siakam TOR
12%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
5 Dennis Schroder TOR
11%
6 Nick Richards CHA
10%
7 OG Anunoby TOR
10%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
9 Bryce McGowens CHA
8%
10 P.J. Washington CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
27%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Terry Rozier CHA 24.8 3.7 8.4
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 24.3 6.4 5.4
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.9 8.7 6.0
4 Brandon Miller CHA 16.9 4.2 3.2
5 OG Anunoby TOR 16.7 4.6 3.3
6 Dennis Schroder TOR 13.5 3.1 6.5
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.6 9.5 2.0
8 P.J. Washington CHA 11.1 4.8 2.6
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 9.8 2.0 1.9
10 Nick Richards CHA 9.7 6.9 1.0
11 Precious Achiuwa TOR 8.6 5.4 1.9
12 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.1 1.8 1.0
13 Frank Ntilikina CHA 5.2 2.0 2.4
14 Malachi Flynn TOR 5.2 2.1 2.4
15 Ish Smith CHA 5.1 1.8 3.0
16 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.9 1.6 0.9
17 Chris Boucher TOR 4.8 2.3 0.7
18 Gradey Dick TOR 4.3 1.2 1.0
19 JT Thor CHA 4.1 2.0 0.7
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.3 1.4 0.8
21 Thaddeus Young TOR 3.2 1.9 0.9
22 Leaky Black CHA 2.8 1.5 0.7
23 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 2.4 1.7 0.4
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.3 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.