NBA games

MIN @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
112–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN22322335112
MIA33331725108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home MIA
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 32 8 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 18 8 2
Mike Conley S 33 14 1 6
Naz Reid 21 13 4 1
Jaden McDaniels S 30 10 5 2
Rudy Gobert S 35 9 16 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22 8 1 3
Kyle Anderson 22 5 1 5
Troy Brown Jr. 5 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 33 25 3 2
Bam Adebayo S 36 22 6 6
Jimmy Butler III S 34 15 5 5
Duncan Robinson 22 14 5 3
Josh Richardson 26 13 4 3
Kevin Love S 24 9 10 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 30 8 3 0
Caleb Martin S 22 2 3 3
Haywood Highsmith 12 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 1-foot dunk (Caleb Martin assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
9%
7 Caleb Martin MIA
9%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
10 Orlando Robinson MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
19%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.7 10.2 4.0
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.7 4.6 5.7
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 23.2 5.1 5.8
4 Tyler Herro MIA 23.2 4.5 5.0
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.0 9.4 3.9
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.0 3.9 3.8
7 Caleb Martin MIA 18.9 6.2 3.6
8 Naz Reid MIN 15.1 5.5 1.7
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 15.0 3.0 3.6
10 Mike Conley MIN 13.7 3.3 7.0
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.6 11.3 1.4
12 Josh Richardson MIA 13.1 3.1 3.3
13 Kevin Love MIA 10.7 6.4 2.8
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.0 2.4 2.5
15 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 9.8 3.3 1.8
16 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.0 2.2 1.3
17 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.8 3.7 3.9
18 Orlando Robinson MIA 6.7 4.5 1.5
19 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.2 2.7 1.5
20 Shake Milton MIN 5.8 1.6 1.6
21 R.J. Hampton MIA 4.3 1.5 1.5
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.9 3.2 0.6
23 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.8 3.0 1.4
24 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.4 1.3 1.2
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 3.1 1.3 1.2
26 Josh Minott MIN 2.3 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.