NBA games

DET @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
124–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET25273240124
ATL38233534130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ATL
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 44 43 5 7
Bojan Bogdanovic S 39 25 2 2
Marvin Bagley III S 23 17 1 0
Jaden Ivey S 29 15 8 4
James Wiseman 25 10 7 2
Alec Burks 23 6 2 2
Marcus Sasser 21 5 1 1
Ausar Thompson S 19 2 8 3
Joe Harris 12 1 2 2
Isaiah Livers 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 38 31 4 15
Saddiq Bey S 42 21 4 1
Dejounte Murray S 33 20 3 3
De'Andre Hunter S 29 19 6 2
Clint Capela S 28 17 15 2
Onyeka Okongwu 23 14 2 1
Garrison Mathews 23 6 3 0
Wesley Matthews 15 2 2 1
Seth Lundy 9 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Andre Hunter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Andre Hunter ATL
12%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
3 Clint Capela ATL
9%
4 Dejounte Murray ATL
9%
5 Marvin Bagley III DET
8%
6 Saddiq Bey ATL
8%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
8 Killian Hayes DET
8%
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
7%
10 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
26%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 31.8 4.0 12.1
2 Cade Cunningham DET 23.7 4.6 7.2
3 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 21.7 3.1 3.6
4 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 20.9 4.4 2.9
5 Dejounte Murray ATL 19.8 4.6 5.5
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 18.5 4.7 1.9
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.6 6.5 1.9
8 Clint Capela ATL 13.3 11.7 1.6
9 Jaden Ivey DET 11.3 3.5 2.6
10 Killian Hayes DET 10.6 4.3 4.8
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.6 6.9 1.6
12 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.8 5.7 1.7
13 Ausar Thompson DET 9.3 5.4 1.5
14 Marvin Bagley III DET 8.8 5.4 1.3
15 James Wiseman DET 8.1 5.1 1.1
16 Marcus Sasser DET 7.0 1.7 2.6
17 Isaiah Livers DET 6.2 2.5 1.7
18 Kevin Knox II DET 6.0 2.5 1.1
19 Alec Burks DET 5.5 1.7 0.9
20 Bruno Fernando ATL 4.5 2.7 0.9
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.2 1.4 0.7
22 Joe Harris DET 4.0 1.4 1.0
23 Seth Lundy ATL 3.9 1.4 0.6
24 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.6 1.7 0.9
25 Trent Forrest ATL 3.4 1.8 1.8
26 Patty Mills ATL 3.2 1.2 1.1
27 Miles Norris ATL 2.9 1.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.