NBA games

CHI @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
108–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI25302627108
PHI24202535104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home PHI
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 40 24 8 9
Nikola Vucevic S 34 23 8 4
DeMar DeRozan S 37 15 4 5
Patrick Williams S 37 13 6 0
Jevon Carter 18 12 0 0
Alex Caruso 31 10 4 4
Andre Drummond 14 5 8 0
Ayo Dosunmu S 19 4 4 1
Dalen Terry 10 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 37 40 14 6
Tyrese Maxey S 39 29 5 8
Paul Reed 12 8 4 1
De'Anthony Melton S 29 6 4 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. 24 6 3 0
Patrick Beverley 19 4 3 1
Danuel House Jr. 7 3 0 0
Nicolas Batum S 27 3 4 3
Tobias Harris S 32 3 5 2
Robert Covington 15 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Layup (2 pts) · 10:48 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes layup (Nicolas Batum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
42%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
8%
3 Patrick Williams CHI
7%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
7%
5 DeMar DeRozan CHI
7%
6 Tobias Harris PHI
5%
7 Nicolas Batum PHI
5%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
5%
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
5%
10 Coby White CHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
14%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 37.9 11.6 7.3
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 24.7 4.3 6.2
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.1 3.5 6.5
4 Coby White CHI 23.3 5.2 5.6
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.0 9.9 3.8
6 Tobias Harris PHI 14.2 5.8 3.0
7 Patrick Williams CHI 14.1 5.0 1.9
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI 12.6 3.9 3.4
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.8 4.5 1.3
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 10.7 3.0 2.7
11 Alex Caruso CHI 8.6 2.8 2.2
12 Patrick Beverley PHI 8.0 2.6 2.9
13 Torrey Craig CHI 7.6 4.0 1.0
14 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.6 3.7 2.4
15 Paul Reed PHI 5.9 3.4 1.3
16 Andre Drummond CHI 5.7 7.1 0.7
17 Robert Covington PHI 5.6 4.0 0.9
18 Jaden Springer PHI 5.4 2.1 1.2
19 Danuel House Jr. PHI 5.0 1.6 1.1
20 Mo Bamba PHI 5.0 3.0 0.7
21 Jevon Carter CHI 4.6 1.4 1.3
22 KJ Martin PHI 2.8 1.6 0.8
23 Dalen Terry CHI 2.5 1.4 0.7
24 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.5 0.9 0.8
25 Terry Taylor CHI 2.1 1.6 0.5
26 Julian Phillips CHI 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.