NBA games

LAC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
151–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC37403737151
IND38282833127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home IND
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 28 35 3 9
Kawhi Leonard S 27 28 2 1
Paul George S 31 27 3 4
Norman Powell 30 19 3 0
Ivica Zubac S 26 18 16 3
Russell Westbrook 17 10 4 5
Brandon Boston 6 6 0 0
Terance Mann S 28 4 2 1
Daniel Theis 22 4 9 0
Amir Coffey 18 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 35 34 6 2
Isaiah Jackson S 25 15 4 2
Buddy Hield S 30 14 0 4
Obi Toppin S 30 14 3 4
Aaron Nesmith 26 12 6 2
Bruce Brown S 20 11 4 3
T.J. McConnell 20 10 5 8
Jordan Nwora 16 9 3 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 31 8 2 11
James Johnson 6 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Paul George makes 15-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
2 Myles Turner IND
11%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
4 Bruce Brown IND
9%
5 Paul George LAC
9%
6 Buddy Hield IND
9%
7 T.J. McConnell IND
9%
8 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
9 James Harden LAC
8%
10 Terance Mann LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
32%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 29.3 6.2 3.8
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 24.2 3.9 11.4
3 James Harden LAC 21.3 4.7 8.7
4 Paul George LAC 20.4 5.4 5.4
5 Myles Turner IND 15.9 7.7 1.4
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.3 4.0 2.3
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.8 10.6 1.6
8 Bruce Brown IND 13.3 5.1 2.8
9 Norman Powell LAC 12.6 2.9 1.5
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.3 3.2 1.4
11 Obi Toppin IND 12.1 4.1 1.6
12 Buddy Hield IND 10.8 3.6 2.8
13 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.6 6.3 3.7
14 Terance Mann LAC 9.6 3.1 1.8
15 T.J. McConnell IND 8.4 3.0 5.4
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 7.9 5.3 1.0
17 Daniel Theis LAC 6.5 3.5 0.8
18 Jordan Nwora IND 5.2 2.1 1.2
19 Amir Coffey LAC 4.0 1.6 0.6
20 Kobe Brown LAC 3.5 2.3 0.7
21 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.3 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.