NBA games

HOU @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
130–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
HOU342539248130
CLE3324422313135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home CLE
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 45 27 8 17
Alperen Sengun S 31 24 8 6
Dillon Brooks S 38 16 3 2
Jeff Green 24 15 1 3
Aaron Holiday 17 14 2 0
Tari Eason 33 14 8 2
Jalen Green S 34 12 6 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 23 5 7 0
Jae'Sean Tate 16 3 3 1
Jock Landale 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 45 37 1 6
Sam Merrill 24 19 4 3
Max Strus S 34 17 3 2
Dean Wade S 22 12 3 1
Caris LeVert 27 12 7 5
Isaac Okoro S 32 11 7 6
Georges Niang 25 10 2 0
Jarrett Allen S 29 10 6 2
Tristan Thompson 18 4 5 1
Craig Porter Jr. 9 3 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
3 Dillon Brooks HOU
11%
4 Jalen Green HOU
11%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
27%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.6 6.5 6.0
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.6 9.6 5.0
3 Jalen Green HOU 17.1 4.4 3.6
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.0 4.7 6.7
5 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.3 3.4 1.8
6 Max Strus CLE 13.3 5.2 3.8
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.2 9.2 2.4
8 Caris LeVert CLE 12.7 3.5 3.2
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.4 10.1 2.1
10 Tari Eason HOU 9.6 7.3 1.4
11 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 8.8 2.6 3.0
12 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.8 2.3 1.7
13 Georges Niang CLE 7.2 3.3 1.5
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.7 4.6 1.3
15 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.4 2.6 1.4
16 Jeff Green HOU 6.2 2.0 0.9
17 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.0 3.0 1.1
18 Sam Merrill CLE 4.2 1.3 0.7
19 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.0 3.9 0.8
20 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.2 2.6 0.8
21 Nate Williams HOU 3.2 1.0 0.3
22 Emoni Bates CLE 3.0 1.1 0.4
23 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.9 1.3 0.6
24 Jock Landale HOU 2.3 1.5 0.5
25 Damian Jones CLE 1.2 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.