NBA games

GS @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
118–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS27382429118
POR23263530114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home POR
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 29 28 4 1
Andrew Wiggins 29 25 7 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 18 14 8 3
Jonathan Kuminga S 19 12 4 0
Brandin Podziemski S 33 10 5 5
Dario Saric 15 8 1 1
Stephen Curry S 31 7 2 8
Moses Moody 19 6 4 1
Kevon Looney S 15 4 4 2
Chris Paul 32 4 4 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 41 30 7 6
Anfernee Simons S 36 24 3 7
Scoot Henderson 22 14 1 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 27 12 5 1
Toumani Camara S 22 11 3 0
Deandre Ayton S 33 8 8 1
Malcolm Brogdon 27 8 1 5
Jabari Walker 15 4 5 0
Matisse Thybulle 18 3 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
2 Stephen Curry GS
11%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
4 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Klay Thompson GS
8%
7 Toumani Camara POR
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
10 Kevon Looney GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
22%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.3 5.1 5.4
2 Anfernee Simons POR 24.7 3.2 4.7
3 Jerami Grant POR 22.1 3.8 3.3
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.7 5.3 4.5
5 Klay Thompson GS 18.7 4.7 2.7
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.2 4.7 1.7
7 Malcolm Brogdon POR 14.9 3.1 5.1
8 Scoot Henderson POR 14.2 3.4 4.7
9 Deandre Ayton POR 14.0 9.6 1.9
10 Dario Saric GS 12.3 5.4 2.8
11 Jonathan Kuminga GS 11.4 4.0 1.5
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.4 5.8 2.9
13 Draymond Green GS 10.8 5.9 5.3
14 Chris Paul GS 10.5 3.3 7.4
15 Skylar Mays POR 10.5 2.7 5.9
16 Toumani Camara POR 10.2 4.8 1.5
17 Moses Moody GS 9.5 4.0 1.3
18 Duop Reath POR 8.4 3.3 1.3
19 Jabari Walker POR 8.3 5.7 1.3
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 8.2 2.9 1.5
21 Kevon Looney GS 6.1 6.0 2.2
22 Gary Payton II GS 4.4 2.7 0.7
23 Kris Murray POR 4.2 2.1 0.9
24 Moses Brown POR 3.6 3.6 0.5
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.3 2.0 0.6
26 Cory Joseph GS 2.6 0.8 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.