NBA games

WSH @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
108–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH29293119108
PHX21253531112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home PHX
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Daniel Gafford S 35 26 17 3
Tyus Jones S 39 22 4 11
Kyle Kuzma S 34 17 7 2
Jordan Poole S 32 14 4 4
Deni Avdija S 32 7 6 2
Corey Kispert 25 6 0 1
Bilal Coulibaly 20 6 1 1
Danilo Gallinari 12 6 1 0
Mike Muscala 10 4 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 35 28 5 5
Devin Booker S 41 27 4 8
Eric Gordon 30 13 2 1
Drew Eubanks 17 12 5 0
Grayson Allen S 33 11 4 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 30 6 17 5
Jordan Goodwin 20 6 8 6
Nassir Little S 23 5 7 1
Chimezie Metu 9 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grayson Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Grayson Allen makes 2-foot two point shot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
15%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
4 Devin Booker PHX
12%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
11%
7 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
31%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 32.4 5.7 6.7
2 Devin Booker PHX 29.3 6.3 8.6
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.5 5.9 4.9
4 Jordan Poole WSH 19.4 3.4 4.1
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 18.1 12.0 4.4
6 Eric Gordon PHX 16.2 2.9 3.4
7 Grayson Allen PHX 13.7 3.7 2.9
8 Tyus Jones WSH 12.5 4.1 4.9
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.7 4.4 1.8
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.6 2.8 1.8
11 Daniel Gafford WSH 11.4 8.0 2.0
12 Deni Avdija WSH 11.3 5.4 4.3
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.0 4.6 3.5
14 Nassir Little PHX 6.9 3.6 1.4
15 Chimezie Metu PHX 6.1 2.8 0.9
16 Danilo Gallinari WSH 5.7 3.0 1.0
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.5 5.0 0.9
18 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.4 3.1 1.0
19 Yuta Watanabe PHX 5.0 1.8 1.0
20 Jared Butler WSH 4.5 1.3 1.8
21 Mike Muscala WSH 4.2 2.1 0.9
22 Bol Bol PHX 3.8 2.1 0.8
23 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.1 1.1 0.5
24 Anthony Gill WSH 2.9 1.7 0.6
25 Jules Bernard WSH 2.1 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.