NBA games

HOU @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
119–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU28323128119
MIL33382928128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MIL
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 39 22 2 6
Alperen Sengun S 31 20 8 5
Dillon Brooks S 35 18 4 1
Jeff Green 17 16 0 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 28 16 5 2
Jalen Green S 29 16 2 7
Tari Eason 30 11 6 1
Jae'Sean Tate 19 0 3 1
Aaron Holiday 13 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 37 39 5 11
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 39 26 17 3
Khris Middleton S 29 20 3 2
Brook Lopez S 31 18 6 0
Bobby Portis 25 11 6 0
Andre Jackson Jr. S 36 9 6 4
Pat Connaughton 17 5 2 4
MarJon Beauchamp 13 0 1 0
Cameron Payne 11 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:52 Q1
"Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Jalen Green HOU
10%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Damian Lillard MIL
7%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
9 MarJon Beauchamp MIL
7%
10 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
96%
Jumper
1%
Layup
2%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.4 11.9 6.0
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.1 4.7 7.6
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.5 9.6 5.0
4 Jalen Green HOU 19.6 4.5 3.9
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.7 4.6 8.0
6 Brook Lopez MIL 14.8 4.8 2.3
7 Khris Middleton MIL 14.7 5.8 5.0
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.3 3.7 1.9
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.4 10.1 2.4
10 Bobby Portis MIL 11.8 6.5 1.4
11 Tari Eason HOU 9.8 7.3 1.5
12 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.5 2.6 1.8
13 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.0 4.2 1.8
14 Cameron Payne MIL 6.8 1.7 2.7
15 Jeff Green HOU 5.9 2.3 0.9
16 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.4 2.9 1.0
17 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.1 3.0 1.1
18 Nate Williams HOU 3.7 1.1 0.4
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.7 1.7 0.8
20 AJ Green MIL 3.7 1.3 0.7
21 Chris Livingston MIL 3.5 1.5 0.5
22 Lindell Wigginton MIL 3.5 1.9 1.4
23 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.4 2.8 0.9
24 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.3 1.6 0.7
25 Robin Lopez MIL 2.7 1.6 0.8
26 Jock Landale HOU 2.6 1.8 0.5
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.5 1.2 0.7
28 Marques Bolden MIL 1.3 2.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.