NBA games

NO @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
146110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO33284441146
SA20312732110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home SA
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 26 29 2 2
Brandon Ingram S 27 26 3 4
Jose Alvarado 22 16 3 4
Zion Williamson S 26 15 8 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 15 15 3
Trey Murphy III 25 14 4 4
Naji Marshall 20 11 3 7
Jordan Hawkins 12 7 2 0
Dyson Daniels 18 5 4 4
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 4 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 17 13 4
Julian Champagnie 14 15 1 1
Cedi Osman 17 14 3 0
Keldon Johnson S 32 13 8 3
Devin Vassell S 30 13 2 3
Malaki Branham S 30 11 2 2
Doug McDermott 15 7 2 1
Devonte' Graham 7 7 0 2
Jeremy Sochan S 25 5 3 4
Tre Jones 16 4 0 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malaki Branham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Malaki Branham makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
12%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 Jonas Valanciunas NO
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Keldon Johnson SA
11%
6 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
7 Malaki Branham SA
8%
8 Devin Vassell SA
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Jeremy Sochan SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
24%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.7 6.5 5.6
2 Brandon Ingram NO 23.1 4.8 6.4
3 CJ McCollum NO 22.2 4.6 5.6
4 Devin Vassell SA 20.4 3.9 3.4
5 Keldon Johnson SA 19.5 5.8 4.5
6 Victor Wembanyama SA 19.2 11.8 3.7
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 17.2 11.1 2.6
8 Trey Murphy III NO 15.6 4.2 2.0
9 Herbert Jones NO 13.1 4.8 2.6
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.0 4.9 3.9
11 Zach Collins SA 11.6 5.6 3.4
12 Malaki Branham SA 10.3 2.8 2.5
13 Cedi Osman SA 8.4 2.9 2.4
14 Tre Jones SA 8.3 2.7 4.4
15 Jordan Hawkins NO 8.0 2.6 1.2
16 Naji Marshall NO 7.4 3.9 2.2
17 Jose Alvarado NO 6.8 3.1 1.9
18 Doug McDermott SA 5.7 1.4 1.4
19 Julian Champagnie SA 5.6 2.1 1.0
20 Dyson Daniels NO 5.1 3.3 1.6
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.8 3.0 1.1
22 Devonte' Graham SA 4.4 1.7 1.8
23 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.8 1.8 1.0
24 Cody Zeller NO 3.3 2.7 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.