NBA games

ORL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
97–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL3119242397
BOS27342231114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BOS
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 36 10 1
Jalen Suggs S 28 13 5 0
Franz Wagner S 37 8 8 6
Jonathan Isaac 17 8 2 0
Caleb Houstan 16 8 3 0
Cole Anthony 19 6 1 4
Moritz Wagner 12 6 2 0
Anthony Black S 17 5 2 3
Goga Bitadze S 26 4 8 1
Jett Howard 2 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 34 31 5 6
Jayson Tatum S 31 23 8 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 15 10 0
Jrue Holiday S 34 14 6 0
Derrick White S 27 10 5 4
Al Horford 24 8 8 2
Payton Pritchard 21 5 6 3
Sam Hauser 17 4 2 0
Dalano Banton 2 2 0 0
Neemias Queta 16 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Layup (2 pts) · 10:52 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
9%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
8 Lamar Stevens BOS
8%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
35%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.6 7.9 4.4
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.8 6.7 5.0
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.7 6.1 5.1
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.4 4.6 4.0
5 Derrick White BOS 19.3 4.3 6.0
6 Cole Anthony ORL 18.9 4.3 3.6
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.7 6.9 2.2
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.5 3.5 2.6
9 Moritz Wagner ORL 11.6 4.1 1.4
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.5 5.3 4.2
11 Al Horford BOS 10.1 7.1 2.9
12 Goga Bitadze ORL 9.7 6.9 2.0
13 Sam Hauser BOS 9.2 3.7 1.5
14 Joe Ingles ORL 6.8 2.8 3.2
15 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.8 2.6 2.0
16 Gary Harris ORL 6.6 2.0 1.8
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.4 4.8 0.6
18 Anthony Black ORL 5.9 2.8 1.7
19 Neemias Queta BOS 5.3 4.6 0.6
20 Lamar Stevens BOS 4.6 2.5 0.7
21 Jett Howard ORL 4.2 1.4 0.7
22 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.8 1.9 0.7
23 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.6 2.3 0.6
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.3 1.2 0.6
25 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.8 2.0 0.7
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.7 1.3 0.6
27 Dalano Banton BOS 2.3 1.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.