NBA games

NY @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
122–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY33333224122
LAC35423730144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home LAC
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 34 22 7 6
Julius Randle S 31 22 4 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 22 18 1 1
RJ Barrett S 28 18 5 0
Isaiah Hartenstein 30 12 10 2
Immanuel Quickley 19 9 4 3
Quentin Grimes 24 8 1 0
Jericho Sims S 18 7 2 1
Miles McBride 11 4 1 2
Taj Gibson 6 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 30 36 7 4
Paul George S 31 25 4 7
Norman Powell 24 16 2 0
Ivica Zubac S 28 13 11 2
Terance Mann S 27 13 1 4
Russell Westbrook 15 10 6 4
James Harden S 28 10 4 12
Daniel Theis 15 7 1 0
Kobe Brown 5 6 0 0
Amir Coffey 17 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes 17-foot jumper (Paul George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
2 RJ Barrett NY
11%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Paul George LAC
11%
5 James Harden LAC
9%
6 Julius Randle NY
9%
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC
8%
8 Amir Coffey LAC
8%
9 Terance Mann LAC
7%
10 Jericho Sims NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
34%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
30%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.8 4.1 6.8
2 Julius Randle NY 26.5 9.1 6.0
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.4 6.3 3.9
4 Paul George LAC 21.1 5.7 4.9
5 James Harden LAC 19.8 4.6 8.3
6 RJ Barrett NY 17.7 4.2 2.5
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.0 10.1 1.6
8 Norman Powell LAC 12.5 2.8 1.6
9 Immanuel Quickley NY 12.3 2.6 1.7
10 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.0 6.5 4.0
11 Josh Hart NY 10.0 5.0 2.8
12 Terance Mann LAC 9.7 3.3 1.6
13 Xavier Moon LAC 7.7 2.7 2.7
14 Donte DiVincenzo NY 7.5 2.8 1.4
15 Evan Fournier NY 6.7 1.8 0.6
16 Daniel Theis LAC 6.3 3.3 0.9
17 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 6.2 6.8 1.5
18 Quentin Grimes NY 6.1 1.8 1.2
19 Amir Coffey LAC 3.8 1.3 0.7
20 Kobe Brown LAC 3.5 2.1 0.8
21 Taj Gibson NY 3.0 1.4 0.6
22 Miles McBride NY 3.0 1.1 0.6
23 Jordan Miller LAC 3.0 1.2 0.8
24 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.8 1.1 0.6
25 Jericho Sims NY 2.7 1.9 0.5
26 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.3 1.3 0.5
27 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.3 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.