NBA games

UTAH @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
104–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH23272628104
SAC35274419125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home SAC
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 33 28 3 1
Lauri Markkanen S 28 18 6 3
Talen Horton-Tucker 26 12 3 5
Taylor Hendricks 21 12 3 1
Kris Dunn S 27 11 4 3
Kelly Olynyk S 29 9 5 13
Simone Fontecchio S 25 7 2 0
Ochai Agbaji 23 5 4 0
Walker Kessler 18 2 3 1
Micah Potter 4 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 36 47 8 2
Domantas Sabonis S 35 20 10 8
Malik Monk 26 18 4 8
Harrison Barnes S 33 16 4 2
Kevin Huerter S 25 11 3 5
JaVale McGee 4 4 0 0
Davion Mitchell 18 4 0 1
Sasha Vezenkov 11 3 4 2
Keon Ellis S 26 2 1 7
Kessler Edwards 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
13%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
4 Kevin Huerter SAC
10%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
6 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Kelly Olynyk UTAH
7%
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
25%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.9 7.7 1.5
2 Malik Monk SAC 19.7 3.1 5.5
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.1 3.5 4.4
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.6 11.8 6.9
5 Keegan Murray SAC 13.2 4.4 1.9
6 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 13.0 4.0 2.4
7 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 11.4 2.9 3.6
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.0 3.8 1.7
9 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.8 9.5 1.6
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 10.0 4.2 2.5
11 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 9.5 2.6 1.7
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 8.7 5.7 3.9
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.7 5.2 1.6
14 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.1 2.6 2.9
15 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 6.1 3.1 1.0
16 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 6.0 2.8 0.9
17 Keon Ellis SAC 5.1 1.8 1.2
18 Chris Duarte SAC 4.9 2.2 1.0
19 JaVale McGee SAC 3.4 2.9 0.7
20 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.3 1.1 1.7
21 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.9 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.