NBA games

DAL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
131–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL36383621131
POR39243621120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home POR
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 37 40 12 10
Tim Hardaway Jr. 36 25 6 1
Dante Exum S 27 18 2 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 33 18 1 4
Markieff Morris 20 10 5 4
Seth Curry 14 7 2 1
Dwight Powell 22 6 5 0
Jaden Hardy 6 4 3 0
Grant Williams S 31 3 4 3
Greg Brown III 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 35 33 8 6
Jerami Grant S 38 27 5 1
Scoot Henderson 24 13 3 2
Duop Reath 15 11 5 1
Malcolm Brogdon 24 9 2 2
Toumani Camara S 20 8 3 1
Deandre Ayton S 27 7 10 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 32 7 2 2
Matisse Thybulle 19 5 4 0
Jabari Walker 5 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes alley oop dunk shot (Anfernee Simons assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
9%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
5 Grant Williams DAL
9%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
7 Jerami Grant POR
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Dante Exum DAL
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
36%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
25%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 32.2 8.4 10.4
2 Anfernee Simons POR 23.5 2.6 4.6
3 Jerami Grant POR 20.0 3.3 3.1
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.7 5.7 4.5
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 16.5 3.3 1.8
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR 16.4 3.5 5.9
7 Deandre Ayton POR 15.2 9.9 2.1
8 Scoot Henderson POR 13.5 3.3 5.1
9 Dante Exum DAL 11.9 3.8 3.5
10 Dereck Lively II DAL 11.1 9.3 1.3
11 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 10.5 4.1 1.0
12 Skylar Mays POR 10.5 2.8 5.8
13 Toumani Camara POR 10.3 5.2 1.4
14 Grant Williams DAL 9.8 3.6 2.1
15 Jabari Walker POR 9.0 6.0 1.3
16 Duop Reath POR 8.1 3.0 1.3
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.9 3.0 1.4
18 Seth Curry DAL 6.1 2.0 1.1
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.8 1.7 1.5
20 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.5 1.8 0.7
21 Kris Murray POR 4.3 2.3 0.9
22 Moses Brown POR 3.7 3.9 0.5
23 Markieff Morris DAL 3.6 1.7 0.9
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.5 1.6 0.8
25 Dwight Powell DAL 3.1 2.0 1.2
26 Greg Brown III DAL 2.8 2.6 0.5
27 Dexter Dennis DAL 2.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.