NBA games

OKC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
118–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC27273133118
DEN31253130117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DEN
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 25 6 8
Jalen Williams S 33 24 1 3
Chet Holmgren S 32 17 11 1
Luguentz Dort S 26 13 4 2
Isaiah Joe 27 12 2 1
Jaylin Williams 22 11 4 1
Aaron Wiggins 12 6 2 1
Josh Giddey S 15 4 2 4
Ousmane Dieng 5 2 1 0
Cason Wallace 18 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 24 6 12
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 20 11 0
Aaron Gordon S 33 16 9 5
Jamal Murray S 28 15 2 5
Christian Braun 25 14 2 1
Peyton Watson 16 13 4 0
Reggie Jackson 22 7 3 3
Justin Holiday S 25 6 1 2
DeAndre Jordan 6 2 7 1
Julian Strawther 15 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
18%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Justin Holiday DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
5%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.3 4.3 6.8
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.5 12.1 10.4
3 Jamal Murray DEN 19.9 4.3 6.4
4 Reggie Jackson DEN 19.2 3.0 6.1
5 Jalen Williams OKC 17.5 4.4 3.7
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.5 7.9 2.1
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.4 7.8 2.1
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.2 7.1 3.1
9 Josh Giddey OKC 11.6 6.3 4.1
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.3 3.7 1.5
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.4 2.5 1.2
12 Christian Braun DEN 7.3 3.2 1.8
13 Julian Strawther DEN 7.3 2.3 1.5
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.2 2.5 1.1
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.6 2.5 0.9
16 Justin Holiday DEN 6.6 2.2 1.7
17 Peyton Watson DEN 6.4 3.5 1.3
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.6 4.8 1.2
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.4 2.4 1.2
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.2 3.1 1.3
21 Davis Bertans OKC 4.8 1.5 0.9
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.4 2.7 0.7
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.1 1.7 0.9
24 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.1 0.9 2.9
25 Tre Mann OKC 3.4 1.4 1.0
26 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.9 2.8 0.4
27 Braxton Key DEN 2.4 1.7 0.7
28 Collin Gillespie DEN 1.9 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.