NBA games

BKN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
120–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN25293531120
GS32382529124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home GS
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 37 41 5 2
Nic Claxton S 33 19 12 1
Mikal Bridges S 40 18 6 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 40 16 5 14
Cameron Johnson S 29 13 2 5
Royce O'Neale 34 11 5 3
Jalen Wilson 11 2 1 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 9 0 4 2
Trendon Watford 8 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 37 3 1
Klay Thompson S 34 24 5 3
Brandin Podziemski S 32 19 5 5
Andrew Wiggins 27 14 5 1
Dario Saric 21 12 6 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 21 10 4 2
Kevon Looney S 27 4 7 3
Chris Paul 30 2 4 11
Moses Moody 14 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonathan Kuminga · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jonathan Kuminga makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
17%
2 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
10%
3 Mikal Bridges BKN
9%
4 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
6 Stephen Curry GS
9%
7 Kevon Looney GS
7%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Klay Thompson GS
7%
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
45%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.0 4.9 5.6
2 Mikal Bridges BKN 24.0 5.0 4.1
3 Cam Thomas BKN 21.5 3.7 2.9
4 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 19.4 4.3 7.3
5 Klay Thompson GS 17.6 4.5 2.7
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.3 4.8 1.8
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 14.1 5.7 2.7
8 Dario Saric GS 12.5 5.3 2.9
9 Nic Claxton BKN 12.4 10.4 1.5
10 Chris Paul GS 11.0 3.3 6.4
11 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.9 3.8 1.4
12 Draymond Green GS 10.6 5.9 5.4
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.2 5.6 2.6
14 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.9 5.1 1.3
15 Moses Moody GS 9.7 4.1 1.2
16 Royce O'Neale BKN 8.9 4.2 3.0
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.9 6.9 1.7
18 Trendon Watford BKN 6.7 3.4 1.7
19 Harry Giles III BKN 6.7 3.3 0.5
20 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.2 2.4 3.2
21 Kevon Looney GS 5.9 5.7 2.1
22 Gary Payton II GS 4.2 2.6 0.7
23 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.4 1.3 0.6
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.3 1.9 0.6
25 Cory Joseph GS 2.5 0.8 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.