NBA games

IND @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
109127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND20352331109
MIN23343832127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIN
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith 26 17 5 0
Bruce Brown S 27 17 5 2
Isaiah Jackson 20 12 3 4
Myles Turner S 21 12 5 0
T.J. McConnell S 26 10 4 6
Oscar Tshiebwe 7 8 4 1
Ben Sheppard 17 8 3 0
Jordan Nwora 10 7 1 3
Obi Toppin S 17 7 4 1
Bennedict Mathurin 23 6 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 40 12 4
Anthony Edwards S 34 37 2 4
Naz Reid 27 17 5 0
Troy Brown Jr. 16 11 1 4
Rudy Gobert S 25 5 7 1
Jaden McDaniels S 18 5 1 0
Mike Conley S 24 5 2 9
Kyle Anderson 23 4 4 10
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 26 3 2 1
Wendell Moore Jr. 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 22-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
15%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
3 Myles Turner IND
13%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
6 Bruce Brown IND
9%
7 Obi Toppin IND
9%
8 Buddy Hield IND
9%
9 Mike Conley MIN
8%
10 Jarace Walker IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
19%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 25.1 10.1 4.0
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 22.8 5.0 5.5
3 Myles Turner IND 17.1 8.3 1.6
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.7 4.1 2.1
5 Mike Conley MIN 14.7 3.2 7.1
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.5 12.1 1.8
7 Naz Reid MIN 14.5 5.7 1.7
8 Obi Toppin IND 11.9 4.1 1.6
9 Bruce Brown IND 11.7 4.8 2.6
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.7 2.9 1.5
11 Buddy Hield IND 11.6 3.9 2.4
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.9 2.9 2.9
13 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.7 2.4 1.4
14 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 9.5 3.4 1.5
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.4 4.1 3.2
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 7.3 5.3 0.7
17 T.J. McConnell IND 7.1 2.6 5.0
18 Shake Milton MIN 6.8 1.9 1.8
19 Jordan Nwora IND 4.9 2.1 1.0
20 Jarace Walker IND 4.1 2.3 1.0
21 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.0 1.4 1.7
22 Ben Sheppard IND 3.7 1.2 0.8
23 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 3.5 1.4 1.3
24 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.4 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.