NBA games

CHI @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
116–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI24332336116
MIA36223327118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIA
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 42 27 3 5
Patrick Williams S 33 25 7 4
Coby White S 39 22 7 5
Torrey Craig 14 16 2 0
Nikola Vucevic S 32 12 11 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 41 8 4 3
Andre Drummond 11 4 4 0
Dalen Terry 16 2 1 2
Jevon Carter 12 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 35 28 4 2
Kevin Love 26 22 7 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 35 18 5 4
Caleb Martin S 37 17 4 2
Kyle Lowry S 32 10 3 7
Duncan Robinson S 24 9 1 6
Josh Richardson 20 8 2 2
Haywood Highsmith 14 2 1 1
Thomas Bryant 6 2 2 0
Orlando Robinson S 11 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
15%
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
4 Caleb Martin MIA
9%
5 Kyle Lowry MIA
9%
6 Patrick Williams CHI
9%
7 Orlando Robinson MIA
7%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
9 Coby White CHI
7%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
23%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.1 4.3 6.5
2 Coby White CHI 22.7 4.7 5.9
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.1 5.1 6.3
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.3 3.9 3.9
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.5 10.0 4.8
6 Caleb Martin MIA 17.2 6.1 3.5
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 15.8 3.1 3.4
8 Josh Richardson MIA 13.5 3.3 3.3
9 Patrick Williams CHI 12.9 5.0 1.8
10 Kyle Lowry MIA 12.2 3.9 3.5
11 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 10.3 2.7 2.7
12 Kevin Love MIA 9.4 6.3 2.9
13 Alex Caruso CHI 9.3 2.9 2.4
14 Orlando Robinson MIA 8.0 5.4 2.1
15 Jamal Cain MIA 7.8 3.9 0.9
16 Torrey Craig CHI 7.1 4.5 1.3
17 Andre Drummond CHI 5.7 7.2 0.8
18 Jevon Carter CHI 4.7 1.4 1.3
19 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.7 2.3 1.2
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.0 3.4 0.6
21 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.0 3.0 1.4
22 Dalen Terry CHI 2.4 1.4 0.7
23 Terry Taylor CHI 2.3 1.7 0.6
24 Julian Phillips CHI 1.7 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.