NBA games

ATL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
119–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL28242938119
CLE41292235127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CLE
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 38 35 4 10
Dejounte Murray S 37 21 3 6
De'Andre Hunter S 26 18 2 0
Onyeka Okongwu S 32 16 4 1
Bruno Fernando 16 13 8 1
Garrison Mathews 14 6 0 0
Saddiq Bey S 36 5 6 0
Patty Mills 13 3 2 2
Wesley Matthews 20 2 2 1
Trent Forrest 7 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 35 25 14 1
Donovan Mitchell S 41 22 5 13
Isaac Okoro S 32 18 3 3
Dean Wade S 22 16 5 3
Caris LeVert 25 14 5 1
Max Strus S 34 11 6 5
Sam Merrill 8 9 1 1
Craig Porter Jr. 15 6 2 3
Tristan Thompson 13 6 5 0
Georges Niang 15 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes layup (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
17%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
12%
3 De'Andre Hunter ATL
11%
4 Saddiq Bey ATL
11%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
6 Trae Young ATL
10%
7 Wesley Matthews ATL
8%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
7%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
27%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 30.3 4.1 10.6
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.8 6.6 5.8
3 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 18.9 4.3 2.6
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 18.8 4.6 5.3
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.2 4.3 1.4
6 Max Strus CLE 14.3 5.1 4.0
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.0 9.7 2.8
8 Caris LeVert CLE 14.0 3.6 3.5
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.7 6.7 1.6
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.6 6.8 1.4
11 Georges Niang CLE 8.6 3.3 1.7
12 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 7.9 2.3 2.8
13 Dean Wade CLE 6.5 4.2 1.3
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.3 2.7 1.3
15 Seth Lundy ATL 4.0 1.5 0.5
16 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.0 4.0 1.0
17 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.8 2.5 0.9
18 Trent Forrest ATL 3.7 1.6 1.9
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.5 1.4 0.5
20 Sam Merrill CLE 3.2 1.0 0.6
21 Isaiah Mobley CLE 3.1 1.8 1.0
22 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.0 1.4 0.8
23 Patty Mills ATL 2.8 1.2 0.7
24 Damian Jones CLE 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.