NBA games

PHI @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
135–82
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI33402735135
CHA1727152382

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CHA
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 30 42 15 3
Tyrese Maxey S 33 21 2 7
Tobias Harris S 25 15 5 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. 21 12 4 0
Danuel House Jr. 7 10 1 2
Mo Bamba 7 7 1 1
Jaden Springer 12 6 2 1
Marcus Morris Sr. 16 6 4 1
De'Anthony Melton S 25 6 2 2
Paul Reed 14 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 29 14 4 4
Bryce McGowens S 24 12 2 0
Miles Bridges S 31 9 10 0
James Bouknight 7 9 1 0
Nick Smith Jr. 26 9 1 1
Nick Richards S 19 8 4 1
Ish Smith 18 6 1 4
Terry Rozier S 20 6 2 2
Amari Bailey 7 3 0 0
JT Thor 22 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes 13-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
46%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
3 Terry Rozier CHA
8%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
7%
5 Nick Richards CHA
6%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
6%
7 Tobias Harris PHI
6%
8 Nicolas Batum PHI
5%
9 De'Anthony Melton PHI
5%
10 Robert Covington PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
37%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 37.9 12.1 7.0
2 Terry Rozier CHA 25.4 3.8 8.4
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.2 3.5 6.3
4 Miles Bridges CHA 22.0 6.4 2.9
5 Brandon Miller CHA 16.5 4.3 3.1
6 Tobias Harris PHI 14.5 6.0 2.9
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI 13.8 4.3 3.6
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.7 4.7 1.4
9 Nick Richards CHA 9.8 6.8 1.0
10 Patrick Beverley PHI 8.6 2.8 3.0
11 Nicolas Batum PHI 8.2 4.0 2.3
12 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 8.2 3.8 1.1
13 Paul Reed PHI 6.3 4.2 1.3
14 Robert Covington PHI 6.1 4.5 1.0
15 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.9 1.9 1.0
16 Jaden Springer PHI 5.4 2.1 1.1
17 Danuel House Jr. PHI 5.2 1.9 1.0
18 Mo Bamba PHI 4.8 3.3 0.6
19 Ish Smith CHA 4.6 1.6 2.9
20 JT Thor CHA 3.5 1.9 0.6
21 KJ Martin PHI 3.2 2.1 0.7
22 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.2 0.9 0.5
23 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.9 1.2 0.7
24 Nate Mensah CHA 2.8 2.2 0.5
25 Amari Bailey CHA 2.3 1.1 0.5
26 Leaky Black CHA 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.