NBA games

DET @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
114–146
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET20362731114
MIL43383332146

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIL
5% 95%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 31 25 1 6
Bojan Bogdanovic S 31 24 2 2
James Wiseman 26 17 6 5
Jaden Ivey 28 13 4 2
Marvin Bagley III S 22 12 7 1
Marcus Sasser 17 11 1 2
Ausar Thompson S 24 7 6 1
Isaiah Livers 27 2 4 1
Killian Hayes S 14 2 4 5
Alec Burks 4 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 30 33 4 5
Bobby Portis 27 31 12 1
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 26 22 8 6
MarJon Beauchamp S 33 11 6 1
Cameron Payne 15 11 1 5
Andre Jackson Jr. S 26 10 8 1
AJ Green 20 9 1 1
Pat Connaughton 12 6 4 2
Lindell Wigginton 5 6 0 0
Brook Lopez S 26 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
MarJon Beauchamp · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"MarJon Beauchamp makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
16%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
12%
5 Marvin Bagley III DET
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Killian Hayes DET
9%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
9 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
7%
10 Isaiah Livers DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
31%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.8 11.4 6.6
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.6 4.8 8.2
3 Cade Cunningham DET 23.2 4.6 6.9
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 20.9 3.1 3.4
5 Brook Lopez MIL 17.6 5.3 2.5
6 Jaden Ivey DET 12.6 3.4 2.6
7 Killian Hayes DET 10.5 3.8 4.5
8 Bobby Portis MIL 10.5 6.3 1.2
9 Ausar Thompson DET 9.6 5.4 1.5
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.5 5.6 1.6
11 Marvin Bagley III DET 7.7 4.7 0.9
12 Kevin Knox II DET 6.6 2.8 1.0
13 Cameron Payne MIL 6.4 1.7 2.6
14 Isaiah Livers DET 6.3 2.3 1.5
15 James Wiseman DET 6.2 4.4 0.8
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.1 3.3 1.7
17 Alec Burks DET 6.0 1.8 0.9
18 Marcus Sasser DET 5.8 1.6 2.1
19 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.0 2.7 1.0
20 Joe Harris DET 4.4 1.5 0.9
21 AJ Green MIL 4.0 1.4 0.8
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.6 1.4 1.0
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.9 1.6 0.7
24 Chris Livingston MIL 2.9 0.8 0.4
25 Robin Lopez MIL 2.9 1.9 0.9
26 Lindell Wigginton MIL 2.5 1.5 1.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.