NBA games

NY @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
139–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY31323442139
PHX30383123122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHX
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 50 6 9
Julius Randle S 35 23 8 6
RJ Barrett S 29 21 2 3
Immanuel Quickley 24 10 5 3
Quentin Grimes 15 9 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein 31 7 8 2
Josh Hart 29 6 2 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 19 5 1 1
Jericho Sims S 17 5 3 0
Miles McBride 1 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 36 29 3 6
Devin Booker S 37 28 2 9
Jusuf Nurkic S 30 21 12 2
Grayson Allen S 36 13 2 1
Drew Eubanks 15 8 3 0
Bradley Beal S 5 6 0 1
Nassir Little 26 5 4 1
Keita Bates-Diop 14 4 3 0
Jordan Goodwin 23 3 3 9
Chimezie Metu 10 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes two point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
12%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
12%
4 Jericho Sims NY
9%
5 RJ Barrett NY
9%
6 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
7 Devin Booker PHX
9%
8 Julius Randle NY
8%
9 Chimezie Metu PHX
6%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
52%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 30.5 5.4 6.7
2 Devin Booker PHX 28.3 6.3 7.7
3 Julius Randle NY 26.3 10.0 5.5
4 Jalen Brunson NY 26.1 4.0 6.6
5 RJ Barrett NY 17.3 4.5 2.4
6 Bradley Beal PHX 17.3 4.0 3.7
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 15.3 10.4 3.8
8 Immanuel Quickley NY 12.4 2.4 1.6
9 Grayson Allen PHX 11.3 3.1 2.4
10 Josh Hart NY 9.9 5.0 2.9
11 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.5 4.1 2.5
12 Donte DiVincenzo NY 7.8 2.8 1.7
13 Nassir Little PHX 6.8 3.4 1.3
14 Evan Fournier NY 6.7 1.8 0.6
15 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 5.9 6.4 1.3
16 Quentin Grimes NY 5.9 1.8 1.3
17 Chimezie Metu PHX 5.7 2.6 0.8
18 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.2 2.8 1.0
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.1 4.0 0.9
20 Yuta Watanabe PHX 5.1 1.7 1.0
21 Bol Bol PHX 2.9 1.6 0.7
22 Jericho Sims NY 2.4 1.6 0.5
23 Miles McBride NY 2.0 0.6 0.4
24 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.8 0.5 0.4
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.2 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.