NBA games

HOU @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
103–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU14313028103
MEM2926192296

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MEM
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 40 26 7 1
Fred VanVleet S 36 16 6 8
Alperen Sengun S 32 15 7 1
Jalen Green S 28 14 4 4
Jeff Green 19 12 4 1
Tari Eason 23 11 8 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 30 5 12 2
Aaron Holiday 19 4 2 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 4 0 0 0
Jock Landale 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 40 28 13 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 22 3 2
Vince Williams Jr. S 30 11 8 3
Santi Aldama 26 11 4 0
Bismack Biyombo S 33 10 9 1
David Roddy 28 9 5 2
Derrick Rose S 9 3 1 2
Jake LaRavia 10 2 0 1
Jacob Gilyard 16 0 1 3
Ziaire Williams 15 0 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Vince Williams Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
4 Jalen Green HOU
11%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
6 Derrick Rose MEM
8%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 Bismack Biyombo MEM
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
42%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 24.0 4.5 6.4
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.6 5.8 2.2
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.2 10.1 5.3
4 Jalen Green HOU 19.2 4.4 3.7
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.5 4.1 8.2
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.2 10.1 2.4
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.6 3.3 1.9
8 Santi Aldama MEM 10.5 5.4 1.7
9 David Roddy MEM 10.1 5.0 1.6
10 Derrick Rose MEM 9.9 2.4 3.7
11 Tari Eason HOU 9.0 7.3 1.4
12 Aaron Holiday HOU 9.0 2.7 2.0
13 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.4 3.0 1.4
14 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.1 5.3 1.9
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.0 4.7 1.3
16 Jake LaRavia MEM 5.8 2.3 1.0
17 Jeff Green HOU 5.7 2.0 0.8
18 Xavier Tillman MEM 4.9 2.7 1.1
19 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.5 1.3 2.1
20 John Konchar MEM 4.2 3.5 1.1
21 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.5 2.9 0.9
22 Nate Williams HOU 3.5 1.1 0.4
23 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.3 1.6 0.6
24 Jock Landale HOU 2.7 1.9 0.6
25 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 1.8 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.