NBA games

LAL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
115–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL22402528115
SA42272931129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home SA
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 36 23 7 14
Austin Reaves S 34 22 7 4
Rui Hachimura 34 20 5 4
Christian Wood 30 17 8 3
Taurean Prince S 36 12 3 1
Jaxson Hayes S 20 8 7 0
Colin Castleton 5 6 1 1
D'Moi Hodge 8 5 0 3
Max Christie S 23 2 0 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 13 0 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 35 36 6 3
Keldon Johnson S 31 17 2 6
Zach Collins 19 16 6 1
Cedi Osman 25 15 2 6
Victor Wembanyama S 31 13 15 5
Malaki Branham S 33 12 4 8
Jeremy Sochan S 27 11 8 2
Doug McDermott 17 6 1 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 2 3 0 0
Julian Champagnie 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malaki Branham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Malaki Branham makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Keldon Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Keldon Johnson SA
11%
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL
11%
5 LeBron James LAL
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
10%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
7%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
9 Malaki Branham SA
7%
10 Cam Reddish LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
66%
Jumper
9%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 28.0 12.8 3.4
2 LeBron James LAL 26.1 7.2 6.9
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.8 11.6 4.1
4 Keldon Johnson SA 19.2 6.3 4.5
5 Austin Reaves LAL 18.6 4.2 5.2
6 Devin Vassell SA 18.5 3.6 3.5
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 15.4 3.8 6.7
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.1 4.8 3.7
9 Zach Collins SA 11.6 5.4 3.4
10 Taurean Prince LAL 11.3 3.6 2.4
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.6 3.5 1.5
12 Malaki Branham SA 9.1 2.4 2.0
13 Tre Jones SA 8.7 2.8 4.5
14 Cedi Osman SA 8.5 3.1 1.9
15 Cam Reddish LAL 7.6 3.5 1.8
16 Christian Wood LAL 7.4 4.9 1.3
17 Max Christie LAL 6.6 2.9 1.5
18 Julian Champagnie SA 6.0 2.3 1.3
19 Doug McDermott SA 5.7 1.4 1.7
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.3 4.7 1.0
21 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.2 3.1 0.7
22 Colin Castleton LAL 3.4 3.3 0.4
23 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.4 1.4 1.0
24 Devonte' Graham SA 3.4 1.0 1.4
25 D'Moi Hodge LAL 2.6 0.7 0.4
26 Blake Wesley SA 2.5 0.8 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.