NBA games

ATL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
125–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL30292838125
TOR24252926104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home TOR
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 36 38 5 11
Bogdan Bogdanovic 33 20 3 6
Clint Capela S 35 18 15 0
Dejounte Murray S 33 17 7 9
Onyeka Okongwu S 33 14 11 0
Saddiq Bey S 37 10 10 4
Garrison Mathews 18 6 1 0
Seth Lundy 1 2 0 0
Bruno Fernando 1 0 0 0
Patty Mills 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 34 23 4 8
Jakob Poeltl S 25 15 8 0
Pascal Siakam S 34 15 5 4
Malachi Flynn 19 11 4 1
Precious Achiuwa 17 9 2 5
Gary Trent Jr. 20 8 2 3
Chris Boucher 15 7 3 0
OG Anunoby S 33 7 2 4
Dennis Schroder S 31 6 2 4
Gradey Dick 3 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes layup (O.G. Anunoby assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
12%
2 Pascal Siakam TOR
11%
3 Dennis Schroder TOR
11%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
10%
7 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
8 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
9 OG Anunoby TOR
9%
10 Wesley Matthews ATL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
16%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 29.5 3.9 11.2
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 25.7 7.0 5.5
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.5 9.5 5.8
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 19.1 4.5 5.6
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 18.4 4.5 2.6
6 OG Anunoby TOR 17.7 5.0 3.4
7 Dennis Schroder TOR 16.9 3.6 7.2
8 Saddiq Bey ATL 14.1 6.1 1.7
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.9 9.7 2.6
10 Clint Capela ATL 12.1 10.8 1.5
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.2 2.2 1.9
12 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.8 6.5 1.5
13 Precious Achiuwa TOR 8.6 5.8 2.1
14 Malachi Flynn TOR 5.9 2.4 2.7
15 Chris Boucher TOR 5.3 2.4 0.8
16 Seth Lundy ATL 4.3 1.8 0.6
17 Gradey Dick TOR 3.9 1.2 1.1
18 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.7 1.6 0.9
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.4 1.4 0.6
20 Trent Forrest ATL 3.3 1.0 1.6
21 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.9 2.0 0.8
22 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.8 1.8 0.8
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.7 1.1 0.6
24 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 2.6 1.9 0.5
25 Patty Mills ATL 2.1 0.8 0.7
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.1 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.