NBA games

ORL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
111–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL24272733111
BOS30343727128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BOS
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 26 19 4 1
Franz Wagner S 34 17 5 5
Cole Anthony 20 17 0 4
Goga Bitadze S 27 15 11 1
Paolo Banchero S 32 14 4 5
Anthony Black S 28 13 9 4
Jonathan Isaac 16 7 4 0
Caleb Houstan 11 5 2 1
Gary Harris 16 2 0 0
Moritz Wagner 13 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 30 6 4
Payton Pritchard 28 21 3 5
Derrick White S 30 19 4 8
Jaylen Brown S 30 18 3 4
Oshae Brissett 16 11 1 1
Sam Hauser 32 11 7 4
Lamar Stevens S 14 8 3 0
Jrue Holiday S 28 6 4 4
Neemias Queta 18 4 3 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
6 Derrick White BOS
9%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
10 Anthony Black ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
16%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.3 8.7 4.9
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.7 6.9 4.8
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.4 4.7 3.9
4 Franz Wagner ORL 23.3 5.9 4.6
5 Derrick White BOS 19.2 4.3 5.5
6 Cole Anthony ORL 18.8 4.7 4.3
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.7 7.0 2.2
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.9 5.7 4.5
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.5 3.4 2.5
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 11.9 4.2 1.3
11 Sam Hauser BOS 8.7 3.4 1.3
12 Goga Bitadze ORL 8.1 6.6 2.0
13 Gary Harris ORL 6.8 1.7 1.8
14 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.8 2.9 1.9
15 Joe Ingles ORL 6.3 2.6 3.1
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.4 4.8 0.4
17 Lamar Stevens BOS 4.3 2.5 0.6
18 Anthony Black ORL 4.2 2.2 1.2
19 Neemias Queta BOS 3.8 3.8 0.3
20 Jett Howard ORL 3.2 0.8 0.5
21 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.7 0.7 0.4
22 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.6 1.2 0.4
23 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.7 1.4 0.4
24 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.5 0.8 0.3
25 Oshae Brissett BOS 1.3 2.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.