NBA games

IND @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
123–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND37183236123
WSH30393929137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home WSH
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaiah Jackson 20 20 13 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 28 19 2 11
Obi Toppin S 26 16 5 2
Bennedict Mathurin 22 13 3 2
Aaron Nesmith 24 12 3 1
Buddy Hield S 27 11 3 3
T.J. McConnell 20 9 3 9
Jordan Nwora 4 6 1 0
Myles Turner S 20 6 4 1
Jarace Walker 13 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 30 31 5 4
Jordan Poole S 32 30 4 8
Corey Kispert 28 23 1 1
Bilal Coulibaly 30 17 5 0
Tyus Jones S 29 13 10 11
Daniel Gafford S 28 9 10 4
Deni Avdija S 25 6 6 4
Danilo Gallinari 10 4 5 1
Jared Butler 3 2 0 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND
12%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
4 Myles Turner IND
11%
5 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
6 Buddy Hield IND
10%
7 Bruce Brown IND
9%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
10 Obi Toppin IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
36%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 28.2 4.2 12.5
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 25.3 6.2 5.5
3 Jordan Poole WSH 20.2 3.3 3.6
4 Myles Turner IND 18.6 9.3 1.9
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.1 4.0 2.4
6 Buddy Hield IND 14.1 4.1 3.1
7 Bruce Brown IND 13.9 5.2 3.5
8 Obi Toppin IND 13.3 4.1 1.9
9 Tyus Jones WSH 13.3 3.5 4.7
10 Deni Avdija WSH 13.1 5.7 4.5
11 Daniel Gafford WSH 12.9 7.8 2.1
12 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.1 2.9 1.5
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.9 4.4 1.9
14 Corey Kispert WSH 11.1 2.9 1.7
15 T.J. McConnell IND 8.0 3.1 5.5
16 Landry Shamet WSH 6.9 1.5 1.2
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.2 5.2 0.9
18 Danilo Gallinari WSH 6.2 2.7 1.2
19 Jarace Walker IND 5.8 3.1 1.6
20 Jordan Nwora IND 5.8 2.5 1.3
21 Jared Butler WSH 4.5 1.4 1.9
22 Ben Sheppard IND 4.2 1.4 0.9
23 Mike Muscala WSH 4.2 2.3 1.0
24 Anthony Gill WSH 3.4 1.9 0.7
25 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.3 1.7 0.7
26 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 3.0 1.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.