NBA games

DET @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
92–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET2217233092
PHI26353330124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home PHI
8% 92%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Wiseman 28 20 13 1
Bojan Bogdanovic S 26 17 3 2
Jaden Ivey 29 13 4 4
Marcus Sasser 17 11 2 4
Ausar Thompson S 22 8 3 1
Killian Hayes S 21 5 4 2
Alec Burks 17 4 2 0
Cade Cunningham S 24 4 3 2
Isaiah Stewart S 20 4 4 0
Isaiah Livers 25 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 29 35 13 2
Tyrese Maxey S 27 19 1 4
Marcus Morris Sr. 15 15 2 1
Tobias Harris S 24 13 7 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. 17 11 3 1
Jaden Springer 12 9 2 3
De'Anthony Melton S 23 4 3 1
Nicolas Batum S 22 4 5 4
KJ Martin 7 4 1 1
Furkan Korkmaz 7 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes 7-foot two point shot (Nicolas Batum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
20%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
10%
5 De'Anthony Melton PHI
8%
6 Marvin Bagley III DET
7%
7 Killian Hayes DET
6%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
6%
9 Nicolas Batum PHI
6%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
73%
Jumper
16%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 32.9 11.0 7.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.9 3.6 6.6
3 Cade Cunningham DET 24.8 4.5 7.6
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 21.1 2.9 3.4
5 Tobias Harris PHI 15.3 5.0 3.0
6 De'Anthony Melton PHI 15.2 4.6 3.7
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.2 4.6 1.5
8 Jaden Ivey DET 12.5 3.4 2.5
9 Killian Hayes DET 10.2 3.3 4.4
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.0 6.1 1.6
11 Ausar Thompson DET 9.6 5.8 1.4
12 Patrick Beverley PHI 8.8 3.0 3.1
13 Nicolas Batum PHI 8.2 3.8 2.2
14 Marvin Bagley III DET 7.5 4.7 0.9
15 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 7.0 3.5 1.1
16 Kevin Knox II DET 6.7 2.8 1.0
17 Alec Burks DET 6.4 1.9 1.0
18 Robert Covington PHI 6.4 4.4 1.1
19 Isaiah Livers DET 6.3 2.2 1.4
20 Paul Reed PHI 6.3 4.0 1.2
21 Marcus Sasser DET 5.8 1.4 2.4
22 James Wiseman DET 5.2 3.6 0.7
23 Jaden Springer PHI 5.1 2.2 1.2
24 Danuel House Jr. PHI 5.0 1.4 1.0
25 Mo Bamba PHI 4.7 3.0 0.7
26 Joe Harris DET 3.6 1.0 0.6
27 KJ Martin PHI 2.8 1.6 0.7
28 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.6 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.