NBA games

NO @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
112–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO21292636112
CHA20193731107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home CHA
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonas Valanciunas S 37 29 13 4
Zion Williamson S 30 21 11 4
CJ McCollum S 35 19 5 4
Trey Murphy III 25 13 6 2
Herbert Jones S 28 11 2 1
Brandon Ingram S 32 8 3 7
Jose Alvarado 21 8 8 1
Naji Marshall 13 3 1 1
Jordan Hawkins 4 0 0 0
Dyson Daniels 15 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 39 30 4 6
Miles Bridges S 39 27 10 2
Brandon Miller S 35 16 4 3
Nick Richards S 30 16 6 1
Gordon Hayward S 34 9 3 4
Bryce McGowens 21 7 2 0
Nate Mensah 13 2 7 0
Ish Smith 15 0 1 2
JT Thor 14 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
11%
2 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
3 Gordon Hayward CHA
10%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 Terry Rozier CHA
10%
6 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
7 CJ McCollum NO
9%
8 Nick Richards CHA
9%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
10 Dyson Daniels NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
58%
Jumper
16%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.7 5.7 5.6
2 Brandon Ingram NO 24.5 4.8 6.2
3 Terry Rozier CHA 24.4 3.8 8.5
4 CJ McCollum NO 21.9 4.5 5.5
5 Miles Bridges CHA 21.3 6.6 3.2
6 Brandon Miller CHA 18.5 4.3 3.2
7 Gordon Hayward CHA 18.5 5.1 5.4
8 Trey Murphy III NO 16.5 4.0 2.0
9 Jonas Valanciunas NO 16.4 10.4 2.5
10 Herbert Jones NO 13.8 4.8 3.1
11 Nick Richards CHA 8.7 6.6 1.0
12 Jordan Hawkins NO 8.5 2.7 1.2
13 Naji Marshall NO 7.6 4.5 2.2
14 Jose Alvarado NO 6.6 2.6 2.0
15 Dyson Daniels NO 5.9 3.8 2.1
16 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.7 1.9 1.1
17 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.3 3.1 1.1
18 Ish Smith CHA 5.1 1.8 3.2
19 JT Thor CHA 4.1 1.9 0.7
20 Cody Zeller NO 3.6 2.9 1.1
21 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.2 0.9 0.5
22 Nate Mensah CHA 2.9 1.5 0.5
23 Leaky Black CHA 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.