NBA games

GS @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
113–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS28283720113
LAC29403022121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAC
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 32 30 1 5
Stephen Curry S 34 17 4 4
Jonathan Kuminga S 25 15 5 1
Chris Paul 29 12 2 3
Moses Moody 16 11 5 1
Andrew Wiggins 22 9 3 0
Kevon Looney S 26 8 7 5
Dario Saric 17 5 6 1
Brandin Podziemski S 35 4 7 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 5 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 42 28 7 15
Kawhi Leonard S 39 27 8 2
Norman Powell 36 21 5 2
Amir Coffey S 29 18 4 1
Ivica Zubac S 30 10 8 2
Russell Westbrook 19 9 4 2
Daniel Theis 16 4 1 1
Kobe Brown 7 2 0 0
Terance Mann S 20 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three pointer (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
15%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
14%
3 James Harden LAC
12%
4 Klay Thompson GS
12%
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
6 Terance Mann LAC
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Kevon Looney GS
9%
9 Stephen Curry GS
9%
10 Dario Saric GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
42%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
14%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.4 6.4 3.9
2 Stephen Curry GS 24.5 5.4 5.3
3 James Harden LAC 17.9 4.4 7.3
4 Klay Thompson GS 16.8 4.5 2.4
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.3 4.9 1.8
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.1 10.3 1.5
7 Dario Saric GS 12.2 5.3 2.8
8 Norman Powell LAC 11.4 2.5 1.3
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.9 3.9 1.4
10 Draymond Green GS 10.5 5.8 5.2
11 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.0 6.4 3.8
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.9 5.5 2.5
13 Chris Paul GS 9.9 3.1 6.6
14 Terance Mann LAC 9.9 3.3 1.7
15 Moses Moody GS 9.1 3.8 1.2
16 Xavier Moon LAC 8.2 2.9 2.8
17 Daniel Theis LAC 6.5 4.1 1.1
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.8 6.2 2.1
19 Bones Hyland LAC 5.8 1.3 1.8
20 Gary Payton II GS 4.1 2.6 0.6
21 Kobe Brown LAC 3.2 2.1 0.7
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.1 1.9 0.6
23 Cory Joseph GS 2.6 0.8 1.6
24 Amir Coffey LAC 2.5 1.4 0.5
25 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.2 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.