NBA games

OKC @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
123–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC30233931123
SAC29304128128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SAC
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 43 6 9
Josh Giddey S 29 18 8 4
Luguentz Dort S 32 17 4 0
Chet Holmgren S 30 14 11 1
Isaiah Joe 15 6 1 0
Ousmane Dieng 10 6 0 0
Aaron Wiggins 7 6 1 0
Jalen Williams S 29 5 4 3
Jaylin Williams 15 3 6 3
Cason Wallace 19 3 0 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 34 41 3 7
Domantas Sabonis S 40 18 16 7
Malik Monk 33 18 1 9
Keon Ellis 28 17 6 3
Keegan Murray S 31 15 3 1
Harrison Barnes S 21 5 3 2
Trey Lyles 19 5 7 1
Kevin Huerter S 20 4 2 2
Sasha Vezenkov 10 3 4 0
JaVale McGee 4 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes driving layup (Kevin Huerter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Kevin Huerter SAC
9%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
7%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
18%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.5 4.8 7.4
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.9 4.5 6.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.3 4.4 3.8
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.5 8.0 2.8
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.6 11.0 6.3
6 Malik Monk SAC 17.7 2.9 4.4
7 Keegan Murray SAC 13.3 4.8 1.8
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.7 3.9 1.4
9 Josh Giddey OKC 11.2 6.0 3.9
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 9.8 3.9 2.4
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.7 2.7 1.4
12 Trey Lyles SAC 8.0 4.6 1.5
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.8 3.2 1.3
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.0 2.6 1.0
15 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 6.1 3.1 0.9
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.6 2.5 0.9
17 Chris Duarte SAC 5.2 2.4 0.9
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.7 2.6 1.2
19 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.6 1.2 3.2
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.5 2.6 1.2
21 Davis Bertans OKC 4.5 1.3 0.9
22 Colby Jones SAC 4.2 1.6 0.7
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.9 1.5 1.1
24 Tre Mann OKC 3.9 1.7 1.3
25 JaVale McGee SAC 3.6 3.3 0.7
26 Keon Ellis SAC 3.6 1.6 1.0
27 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.6 1.3 1.7
28 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.2 2.8 0.5
29 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.2 1.4 0.6
30 Jordan Ford SAC 3.2 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.