NBA games

UTAH @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
122–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH38313419122
POR30242238114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home POR
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 32 27 2 4
Simone Fontecchio S 25 24 5 0
Talen Horton-Tucker S 30 23 2 4
Ochai Agbaji 26 16 3 2
Walker Kessler S 26 10 10 4
Taylor Hendricks 25 10 7 0
Kris Dunn 26 6 2 5
Omer Yurtseven 22 4 4 1
Kelly Olynyk S 24 2 10 7
Micah Potter 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson 35 23 2 10
Toumani Camara S 24 18 6 0
Duop Reath 13 15 5 0
Deandre Ayton S 21 14 9 0
Jabari Walker 28 13 9 1
Anfernee Simons S 22 9 1 6
Malcolm Brogdon 14 9 0 1
Kris Murray 17 6 5 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 27 4 7 2
Matisse Thybulle S 17 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Walker Kessler · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Walker Kessler makes alley oop dunk shot (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
3 John Collins UTAH
11%
4 Malcolm Brogdon POR
10%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
7 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Kelly Olynyk UTAH
7%
10 Duop Reath POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
35%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
27%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 24.3 2.7 4.4
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.7 5.3 4.6
3 Malcolm Brogdon POR 17.8 3.9 6.5
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 16.0 3.4 4.0
5 John Collins UTAH 15.1 8.1 1.3
6 Deandre Ayton POR 15.1 8.9 1.9
7 Scoot Henderson POR 13.0 3.2 5.0
8 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 12.4 3.7 2.2
9 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.6 9.3 1.3
10 Toumani Camara POR 9.8 4.7 1.5
11 Skylar Mays POR 9.8 2.2 5.2
12 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 9.7 2.6 3.2
13 Jabari Walker POR 9.6 5.7 1.5
14 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 9.4 2.5 1.6
15 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 8.9 5.4 3.9
16 Duop Reath POR 7.9 2.7 1.4
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.6 2.7 1.5
18 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 6.4 6.5 1.1
19 Kris Dunn UTAH 5.7 2.7 2.5
20 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.3 2.4 0.8
21 Moses Brown POR 3.8 3.9 0.6
22 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.6 2.2 0.6
23 Kris Murray POR 3.2 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.