NBA games

BKN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
101–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN22172834101
DEN29233834124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home DEN
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Spencer Dinwiddie S 24 17 4 8
Cam Thomas S 27 13 3 0
Harry Giles III 15 11 6 1
Cameron Johnson S 22 10 3 0
Nic Claxton S 17 10 9 2
Mikal Bridges S 25 9 0 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 26 8 13 5
Trendon Watford 22 8 4 6
Jalen Wilson 17 7 4 2
Armoni Brooks 15 6 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 30 26 14 10
Peyton Watson 24 18 7 5
Jamal Murray S 22 16 1 2
Aaron Gordon S 24 13 3 2
Reggie Jackson 23 12 0 4
Christian Braun 24 10 4 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 23 9 6 1
Julian Strawther 20 8 4 1
Zeke Nnaji 6 5 3 1
Jalen Pickett 2 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes driving layup (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
13%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
11%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
6 Reggie Jackson DEN
9%
7 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
8 Mikal Bridges BKN
9%
9 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
10 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
31%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.2 11.8 10.1
2 Mikal Bridges BKN 25.6 5.7 4.3
3 Cam Thomas BKN 21.9 3.7 3.3
4 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 19.6 4.4 7.4
5 Jamal Murray DEN 19.4 4.2 6.4
6 Reggie Jackson DEN 18.9 3.5 6.0
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.3 7.8 2.2
8 Cameron Johnson BKN 16.1 5.6 3.3
9 Aaron Gordon DEN 12.6 7.5 3.0
10 Nic Claxton BKN 12.5 10.4 1.4
11 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.2 4.7 1.3
12 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.0 4.3 3.0
13 Christian Braun DEN 6.9 3.1 1.7
14 Trendon Watford BKN 6.7 3.4 1.5
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.6 6.7 1.2
16 Julian Strawther DEN 6.5 1.9 1.4
17 Justin Holiday DEN 6.2 2.1 1.5
18 Harry Giles III BKN 6.0 2.9 0.6
19 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.9 5.5 1.4
20 Peyton Watson DEN 5.2 3.1 1.1
21 Armoni Brooks BKN 4.4 1.8 0.7
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.7 2.5 0.6
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.0 1.3 0.4
24 Jalen Wilson BKN 2.8 1.1 0.5
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.2 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.