NBA games

MIN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
119–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN26332832119
DAL30302219101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DAL
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid 31 27 6 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 21 17 2
Mike Conley S 29 14 2 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 20 13 1 1
Jaden McDaniels S 24 11 2 1
Anthony Edwards S 35 9 2 11
Rudy Gobert S 30 8 12 5
Kyle Anderson 18 6 2 2
Troy Brown Jr. 15 5 1 1
Josh Minott 2 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 39 6 13
Dereck Lively II S 32 15 6 0
Dante Exum S 28 14 4 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 32 10 4 0
Jaden Hardy 13 5 2 1
Grant Williams S 36 5 3 1
Dwight Powell 7 4 4 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 30 3 4 0
Markieff Morris 13 2 1 1
A.J. Lawson 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grant Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Grant Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
2 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
4 Grant Williams DAL
10%
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
10%
6 Luka Doncic DAL
10%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
9 Dante Exum DAL
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
20%
Layup
54%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.9 8.6 10.4
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.0 9.4 4.0
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 21.9 5.0 4.8
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 15.4 3.0 1.8
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.3 11.4 1.3
6 Mike Conley MIN 13.1 3.1 6.9
7 Naz Reid MIN 12.5 5.4 1.6
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.4 2.9 2.7
9 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.0 9.2 1.4
10 Dante Exum DAL 10.0 3.6 3.0
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.9 2.1 1.3
12 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.4 4.3 1.1
13 Grant Williams DAL 9.0 3.5 2.1
14 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 8.8 3.5 1.5
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.1 4.1 3.3
16 Shake Milton MIN 6.6 1.9 1.9
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.3 1.5 1.4
18 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.8 1.7 0.6
19 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.7 3.7 0.7
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.5 1.9 0.8
21 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.4 1.2 1.6
22 Markieff Morris DAL 3.3 1.7 0.8
23 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.9 1.2 1.2
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 1.4 1.2
25 Josh Minott MIN 2.2 1.0 0.5
26 Dexter Dennis DAL 2.2 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.