NBA games

CHI @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
124–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI36243331124
MIA22343228116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIA
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 40 26 7 11
Ayo Dosunmu 35 24 8 5
Nikola Vucevic S 36 24 12 7
DeMar DeRozan S 41 23 5 4
Patrick Williams S 32 9 2 3
Andre Drummond 12 7 5 0
Alex Caruso S 5 6 0 1
Torrey Craig 23 5 3 0
Jevon Carter 13 0 0 1
Dalen Terry 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 34 22 4 4
Jimmy Butler III S 36 20 6 7
Kyle Lowry S 39 17 3 3
Caleb Martin S 39 17 12 4
Kevin Love 22 16 9 4
Duncan Robinson S 27 11 2 3
Thomas Bryant 12 6 2 1
Jamal Cain 8 3 0 0
R.J. Hampton 9 3 2 0
Orlando Robinson S 14 1 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Caruso · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Alex Caruso makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
5 Caleb Martin MIA
9%
6 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
7 Orlando Robinson MIA
7%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
10 Kyle Lowry MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
19%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 24.2 4.1 6.4
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 23.1 4.8 6.2
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.8 10.0 4.2
4 Coby White CHI 22.4 4.3 5.6
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.5 4.2 4.0
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.3 10.1 4.0
7 Caleb Martin MIA 16.9 5.4 3.2
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.9 3.2 3.8
9 Patrick Williams CHI 13.4 5.3 1.8
10 Kyle Lowry MIA 13.4 3.9 3.7
11 Alex Caruso CHI 9.8 3.0 2.0
12 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 9.3 2.4 2.3
13 Kevin Love MIA 8.8 6.2 2.5
14 Orlando Robinson MIA 7.9 5.3 2.1
15 Jamal Cain MIA 7.9 4.0 1.0
16 Torrey Craig CHI 6.9 4.5 1.2
17 R.J. Hampton MIA 6.0 2.0 2.5
18 Andre Drummond CHI 5.5 7.2 0.8
19 Cole Swider MIA 5.4 1.0 0.9
20 Jevon Carter CHI 5.2 1.5 1.3
21 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.7 3.8 0.7
22 Terry Taylor CHI 3.2 2.2 0.8
23 Dalen Terry CHI 2.6 1.5 0.8
24 Julian Phillips CHI 2.5 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.