NBA games

CLE @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
107–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE24303320107
BOS33322526116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BOS
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 40 31 8 6
Caris LeVert 35 26 3 5
Darius Garland S 36 19 2 3
Jarrett Allen S 39 8 10 3
Isaac Okoro 18 7 4 2
Dean Wade S 16 5 4 0
Max Strus S 31 5 4 2
Georges Niang 22 4 2 0
Tristan Thompson 3 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 36 27 11 3
Jaylen Brown S 36 22 5 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 31 18 6 0
Jrue Holiday S 37 15 3 4
Derrick White S 35 14 5 3
Sam Hauser 18 9 0 1
Al Horford 24 7 10 3
Lamar Stevens 9 4 1 1
Payton Pritchard 14 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
17%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Dean Wade CLE
6%
10 Max Strus CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
27%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.8 8.7 5.0
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.3 6.4 5.1
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.6 5.0 3.8
4 Darius Garland CLE 22.4 3.2 6.2
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.0 6.5 2.3
6 Derrick White BOS 17.7 4.2 5.8
7 Max Strus CLE 13.3 4.7 3.6
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.2 6.2 4.3
9 Caris LeVert CLE 12.8 3.4 2.8
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.4 8.4 2.3
11 Al Horford BOS 10.4 6.5 2.9
12 Sam Hauser BOS 8.7 3.6 1.3
13 Georges Niang CLE 8.5 3.5 1.5
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 7.7 2.2 2.6
15 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.2 2.7 1.8
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.0 4.4 1.1
17 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.8 2.4 1.1
18 Luke Kornet BOS 4.9 3.7 0.7
19 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.5 3.7 0.8
20 Sam Merrill CLE 3.3 1.1 0.6
21 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.8 1.7 0.3
22 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.6 0.7 0.4
23 Dalano Banton BOS 2.2 1.9 0.4
24 Damian Jones CLE 1.5 1.0 0.2
25 Oshae Brissett BOS 1.4 2.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.