NBA games

NY @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
113–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY31193429113
UTAH22303728117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home UTAH
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 39 32 12 6
Jalen Brunson S 39 23 7 8
Donte DiVincenzo S 27 21 7 1
Immanuel Quickley 18 15 2 1
RJ Barrett S 24 9 6 2
Isaiah Hartenstein 29 7 6 0
Jericho Sims S 18 4 2 0
Quentin Grimes 16 2 2 1
Josh Hart 29 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 30 26 4 7
Lauri Markkanen S 25 23 7 0
Simone Fontecchio S 31 15 6 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 24 15 4 3
Kris Dunn 18 10 2 7
Walker Kessler 23 9 9 1
Kelly Olynyk S 30 9 10 8
Ochai Agbaji 30 5 4 2
Taylor Hendricks 20 5 4 1
Omer Yurtseven 5 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jericho Sims NY
12%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
3 RJ Barrett NY
11%
4 Julius Randle NY
11%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
8 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
9 Kelly Olynyk UTAH
7%
10 Ochai Agbaji UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
73%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
12%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle NY 27.3 9.2 6.0
2 Jalen Brunson NY 26.0 3.8 6.9
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 21.0 6.9 1.4
4 RJ Barrett NY 18.7 4.3 2.8
5 Keyonte George UTAH 17.5 3.7 5.4
6 Immanuel Quickley NY 14.4 2.7 1.8
7 Collin Sexton UTAH 13.6 3.1 3.9
8 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 11.7 3.4 2.1
9 Josh Hart NY 11.0 5.3 3.3
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.9 8.7 1.2
11 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.8 2.7 1.9
12 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 8.7 2.5 3.5
13 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 8.4 4.5 4.1
14 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 8.2 2.2 1.6
15 Evan Fournier NY 7.3 1.8 0.7
16 Quentin Grimes NY 6.6 1.8 1.5
17 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 6.4 6.1 1.2
18 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 5.8 6.6 1.5
19 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.2 2.3 0.8
20 Kris Dunn UTAH 5.2 2.4 2.3
21 Miles McBride NY 3.1 1.0 0.8
22 Jericho Sims NY 2.5 1.7 0.6
23 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.2 0.6 0.5
24 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.