NBA games

BKN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
116–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN31332230116
PHX22343224112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home PHX
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 28 24 2 4
Mikal Bridges S 39 21 3 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 35 16 8 7
Cameron Johnson S 34 15 5 4
Nic Claxton S 33 14 7 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 25 8 6 1
Royce O'Neale 19 8 1 4
Trendon Watford 18 7 1 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 8 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 40 34 6 12
Kevin Durant S 38 27 6 4
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 15 22 3
Bradley Beal S 34 14 1 4
Nassir Little 27 10 7 3
Chimezie Metu S 20 8 4 0
Keita Bates-Diop 12 2 2 1
Jordan Goodwin 27 2 0 1
Yuta Watanabe 7 0 1 0
Drew Eubanks 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cam Thomas · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Cam Thomas makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Cameron Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
13%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
4 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
11%
5 Devin Booker PHX
9%
6 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
7 Mikal Bridges BKN
9%
8 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
9 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
10 Chimezie Metu PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
34%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 30.0 5.7 6.4
2 Devin Booker PHX 27.6 6.3 7.3
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 25.3 5.6 4.4
4 Cam Thomas BKN 20.3 3.8 2.9
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 19.1 4.2 7.0
6 Bradley Beal PHX 17.2 4.3 3.6
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 15.8 10.2 3.6
8 Cameron Johnson BKN 14.6 5.6 3.0
9 Nic Claxton BKN 12.0 10.0 1.4
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.8 4.7 1.3
11 Royce O'Neale BKN 8.3 4.2 3.0
12 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.2 4.1 2.2
13 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.6 6.9 1.3
14 Trendon Watford BKN 6.3 3.2 1.3
15 Harry Giles III BKN 6.0 2.9 0.5
16 Saben Lee PHX 6.0 1.7 1.9
17 Yuta Watanabe PHX 5.6 2.1 1.0
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.4 4.3 0.9
19 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.3 2.9 0.9
20 Nassir Little PHX 5.3 2.6 0.8
21 Chimezie Metu PHX 5.2 2.6 0.8
22 Armoni Brooks BKN 4.4 1.9 0.6
23 Bol Bol PHX 3.5 2.0 0.7
24 Jalen Wilson BKN 2.8 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.