NBA games

LAL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
122–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL34292930122
SA26242445119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home SA
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 37 10 1
Taurean Prince S 32 17 5 5
Austin Reaves 29 15 4 8
Rui Hachimura S 24 13 7 1
D'Angelo Russell S 33 12 3 10
Cam Reddish S 24 10 2 3
Christian Wood 21 9 6 1
Jaxson Hayes 7 4 1 0
Max Christie 14 3 5 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 17 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 33 30 13 2
Keldon Johnson S 36 28 5 8
Malaki Branham S 28 19 3 0
Devin Vassell S 35 13 5 4
Zach Collins 19 10 2 0
Tre Jones 22 6 1 5
Jeremy Sochan S 29 5 8 5
Cedi Osman 17 5 7 2
Doug McDermott 15 3 1 1
Julian Champagnie 6 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremy Sochan · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Jeremy Sochan makes dunk (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Keldon Johnson SA
13%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL
11%
5 LeBron James LAL
11%
6 Devin Vassell SA
10%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
8 Cam Reddish LAL
8%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
10 Malaki Branham SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
31%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 26.6 12.7 3.5
2 LeBron James LAL 26.0 7.1 6.9
3 Austin Reaves LAL 19.8 4.3 5.2
4 Victor Wembanyama SA 19.3 11.7 3.3
5 Keldon Johnson SA 18.9 6.2 3.8
6 Devin Vassell SA 18.1 3.8 3.4
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 16.0 3.6 6.4
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.3 4.8 3.7
9 Zach Collins SA 12.8 5.7 3.9
10 Taurean Prince LAL 10.5 3.6 2.0
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.1 3.2 1.5
12 Cedi Osman SA 8.8 3.0 1.9
13 Cam Reddish LAL 8.4 3.4 1.6
14 Tre Jones SA 7.9 2.6 3.9
15 Malaki Branham SA 7.6 2.0 2.0
16 Max Christie LAL 7.0 2.8 1.3
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.6 2.5 1.5
18 Christian Wood LAL 6.4 5.1 1.0
19 Doug McDermott SA 5.9 1.3 1.7
20 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.4 3.1 0.7
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.9 1.6 1.0
22 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.8 4.4 1.1
23 Devonte' Graham SA 3.4 1.0 1.4
24 Colin Castleton LAL 3.3 3.3 0.4
25 D'Moi Hodge LAL 2.5 0.7 0.4
26 Blake Wesley SA 2.5 0.8 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.