NBA games

IND @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
126–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND33303132126
MIL36343139140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 33 22 9 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 31 22 5 7
Bennedict Mathurin 25 14 1 1
Aaron Nesmith 25 12 1 1
Isaiah Jackson 13 9 3 1
Bruce Brown S 27 9 8 9
T.J. McConnell 16 9 5 5
Ben Sheppard 6 8 0 0
Buddy Hield S 27 7 3 2
Obi Toppin S 20 5 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 64 14 3
Damian Lillard S 36 21 4 6
Bobby Portis 23 19 2 2
Khris Middleton S 29 14 9 7
Malik Beasley S 36 7 6 2
MarJon Beauchamp 15 6 3 0
Brook Lopez S 33 6 3 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 14 2 2 2
Cameron Payne 14 1 0 4
Robin Lopez 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
12%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
5 Obi Toppin IND
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
7 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
8 Bruce Brown IND
8%
9 Buddy Hield IND
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
90%
Jumper
3%
Layup
5%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 35.0 11.4 6.5
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.9 4.8 7.6
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 26.5 4.0 11.2
4 Myles Turner IND 17.6 9.0 1.7
5 Brook Lopez MIL 17.5 5.9 2.5
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.6 4.1 2.1
7 Buddy Hield IND 15.2 4.0 2.8
8 Khris Middleton MIL 14.8 5.8 4.7
9 Obi Toppin IND 14.7 3.6 2.2
10 Bruce Brown IND 13.7 4.2 2.7
11 Malik Beasley MIL 13.4 4.7 1.8
12 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.0 2.9 1.4
13 Bobby Portis MIL 10.2 6.6 1.1
14 T.J. McConnell IND 7.6 2.6 4.9
15 Cameron Payne MIL 6.5 1.7 2.4
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.6 5.1 0.8
17 Jarace Walker IND 5.0 2.9 1.3
18 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.5 2.4 0.9
19 AJ Green MIL 4.3 1.3 0.8
20 Jordan Nwora IND 4.2 1.6 0.7
21 Ben Sheppard IND 3.1 1.0 0.7
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.6 1.0 0.6
23 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.3 1.1 0.5
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.2 1.2 0.4
25 Robin Lopez MIL 1.9 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.