NBA games

MEM @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
104–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM23203823104
HOU29282535117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home HOU
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 40 44 7 2
Derrick Rose S 31 19 4 6
Vince Williams Jr. S 28 10 7 1
David Roddy S 32 9 6 4
Santi Aldama 16 7 5 1
Ziaire Williams 26 5 4 3
Jake LaRavia 15 4 0 2
Jacob Gilyard 13 3 0 3
Bismack Biyombo S 24 3 6 1
John Konchar 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tari Eason 27 25 14 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 30 20 10 1
Dillon Brooks S 28 11 2 1
Fred VanVleet S 39 11 5 9
Jae'Sean Tate 23 10 7 3
Jeff Green 13 9 3 0
Alperen Sengun S 24 9 10 2
Jalen Green S 24 8 4 4
Aaron Holiday 14 6 0 2
Reggie Bullock Jr. 6 6 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
17%
2 Jalen Green HOU
13%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
4 Dillon Brooks HOU
12%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
7 Derrick Rose MEM
9%
8 David Roddy MEM
9%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
10 Bismack Biyombo MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
28%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.1 10.3 5.5
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.5 6.1 1.9
3 Jalen Green HOU 19.2 4.6 3.5
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.1 4.5 8.3
5 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.3 3.3 2.0
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.8 9.6 2.5
7 Santi Aldama MEM 12.6 6.0 2.3
8 David Roddy MEM 9.5 4.5 1.4
9 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.8 2.6 2.3
10 Derrick Rose MEM 8.4 2.2 3.1
11 Tari Eason HOU 7.8 6.7 1.3
12 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.4 2.6 1.2
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 6.1 2.5 0.8
14 Bismack Biyombo MEM 5.8 5.0 1.7
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 5.7 4.0 1.1
16 Xavier Tillman MEM 5.6 3.0 1.3
17 Jaylen Nowell MEM 5.4 1.6 1.3
18 Jeff Green HOU 5.4 1.9 1.0
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.8 2.8 1.1
20 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.7 1.3 2.2
21 John Konchar MEM 4.6 3.8 1.1
22 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.4 2.8 0.9
23 Nate Williams HOU 3.4 1.1 0.4
24 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 2.0 1.0 0.5
25 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 1.7 1.1 0.5
26 Jock Landale HOU 1.6 1.1 0.3
27 Shaquille Harrison MEM 1.2 1.3 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.