NBA games

ATL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
128–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL39272933128
TOR31333932135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home TOR
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 39 35 4 17
Bogdan Bogdanovic 32 20 3 5
Dejounte Murray S 34 20 3 5
Clint Capela S 34 17 10 1
Onyeka Okongwu 30 13 8 1
Saddiq Bey S 38 12 10 2
Garrison Mathews 19 6 2 0
Wesley Matthews S 14 5 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 33 7 7
Scottie Barnes S 34 27 10 6
OG Anunoby S 37 22 5 3
Dennis Schroder S 37 17 3 7
Jakob Poeltl S 32 15 13 6
Gary Trent Jr. 20 12 0 1
Precious Achiuwa 17 7 7 1
Chris Boucher 10 2 0 0
Malachi Flynn 17 0 2 8

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
3 Dennis Schroder TOR
10%
4 Trae Young ATL
10%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
10%
7 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
8 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
9 OG Anunoby TOR
8%
10 Garrison Mathews ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
25%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 29.3 3.7 11.4
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 24.9 6.8 5.7
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.4 9.2 5.9
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 19.9 4.5 5.7
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 19.2 4.4 2.2
6 Dennis Schroder TOR 17.8 3.4 6.8
7 OG Anunoby TOR 17.4 4.7 3.4
8 Saddiq Bey ATL 14.0 6.1 1.6
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.3 9.3 2.3
10 Clint Capela ATL 11.7 10.3 1.5
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 9.8 2.1 1.9
12 Precious Achiuwa TOR 9.3 5.6 2.4
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 8.4 6.5 1.7
14 Malachi Flynn TOR 6.0 2.5 2.0
15 Chris Boucher TOR 5.5 2.3 0.8
16 Gradey Dick TOR 4.8 1.5 1.4
17 Seth Lundy ATL 4.3 1.8 0.6
18 Trent Forrest ATL 3.4 1.1 1.7
19 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.1 1.3 0.8
20 Garrison Mathews ATL 2.9 1.3 0.6
21 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.9 2.1 0.8
22 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.7 2.1 0.8
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.6 1.1 0.6
24 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 2.6 1.9 0.5
25 Patty Mills ATL 2.1 0.8 0.7
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.0 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.